Fed Chair Kevin Warsh begins his first congressional testimony today; markets put the odds of a September rate hike near 70 percent

US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first congressional testimony since taking office today, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, first before the House Financial Services Committee and on Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee. Questions will center on inflation, oil prices, tariffs and the interest-rate path.

Markets now price the odds of a first Fed rate hike by September at about 70 percent, while Warsh has so far declined to give an explicit signal, saying only that inflation is "too high." His tone could move the strength of the dollar and the gold price, and in turn Iran's gold and currency markets.