The Federal Reserve's two day meeting opens, with the rate decision due Wednesday

The two day meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee opened on Tuesday, 28 July 2026. The policy statement is due on Wednesday, 29 July, at 2 p.m. US Eastern time, followed half an hour later by a press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

Based on interest rate futures pricing in the days running up to the meeting, the probability of a hold in the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range was put at roughly 63 to 65 percent, with a 25 basis point increase to 3.75 to 4.00 percent priced at roughly 35 to 37 percent. That is above the level of about 26 percent reported a week earlier, a shift attributed to concern over the effect of higher energy prices on inflation. A rate increase at the September meeting is priced at about 82 percent.

The Federal Reserve has held its policy rate unchanged at four consecutive meetings. The path of US interest rates reaches Iran's market through the dollar index and global gold and oil prices.