Gold hovers near $4,000 and a nine-month low as the oil surge revives Fed rate-hike bets

Spot gold traded around $4,000 an ounce on Monday, 20 July 2026 (about $4,001, down roughly 0.4% on the day), near a nine-month low and about 28% below its late-January 2026 record of roughly $5,600.

Contrary to the usual pattern, markets have read the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis as an inflation event rather than a flight-to-safety one: crude's jump above $90 has revived inflation fears and bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike, and that pressure has pushed gold lower. Markets now price meaningful odds of a Fed rate increase by September.

In Iran the picture differs. As of Sunday evening, 19 July, the Emami coin stood near 189 million tomans (down about 0.5%), yet the coin's premium over melt value (the hobab) jumped about 6.8% in a single day to roughly 6.5 million tomans; a gram of 18-carat gold was about 18.8 million tomans (down about 2%). A weak rial and domestic demand have kept Iran's gold market close to record highs even as the global ounce falls.