IEA: return of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz lifted global supply by 4.1 million barrels a day in June

In its monthly Oil Market Report published this week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil supply jumped by 4.1 million barrels a day in June to 98.8 million barrels a day, driven mainly by the resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz after the interim US-Iran ceasefire. Even so, world output remains about 9.4 million barrels a day below pre-war levels.

According to the report, total Persian Gulf oil exports rose by 6.5 million barrels a day in June to 16.1 million barrels a day, still far below the pre-war average of about 24 million barrels a day. The agency warned that the escalation in fighting on July 7 and 8 clouds the outlook and could upend its forecast of the market flipping to a surplus in 2027. Global oil demand is projected to fall by about 1 million barrels a day across 2026 and to rise by about 2 million barrels a day in 2027.