JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs: Middle East Oil Exports Return to 98 Percent of Pre-War Levels

According to EcoIran, on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (8 Mehr 1405), a new JPMorgan estimate led by analyst Natasha Kaneva put Middle East crude oil export flows at 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98 percent of pre war levels. Oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has also returned to near its late June peak of about 13 million barrels a day, with Saudi Arabia the main driver of the increase; JPMorgan stressed that more tanker traffic through Hormuz does not mean the route's risk has fallen. In a separate estimate, Goldman Sachs said Persian Gulf oil exports, including so called dark flows, reached 23.3 million barrels a day last week and that the global oil market was roughly balanced in September, even as Iran's exports fell and Saudi Arabia's more than doubled. Despite the recovery in supply, Brent crude rose about 0.8 percent on Wednesday to 103.43 dollars a barrel, on track for a third straight monthly gain.