IMF: Iran's Economy to Shrink 7.6 Percent in 2026, Then Return to 3.6 Percent Growth in 2027

<p>In its World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday, 21 Mehr 1405 (13 October 2026), the International Monetary Fund projected that Iran's economy will shrink 7.6 percent in 2026. Al Jazeera reported the same figure for Iran. According to EcoIran, citing Tasnim, and to Donya-e-Eqtesad, the Fund expects Iranian growth to reach 3.6 percent in 2027, taking the economy out of recession.</p><p>The Fund forecasts Iran's inflation rate at 78.6 percent in 2026 and 42 percent in 2027. The current account balance is projected at minus 1.2 percent of GDP for 2026 and plus 1.2 percent for 2027, and unemployment is seen easing from 9.2 percent in 2026 to 9 percent in 2027. The reports say the Fund expects Iran's macro indicators to improve in 2027 despite US sanctions pressure.</p><p>These are IMF projections, not official statistics. In the same outlook the Fund put 2026 growth for the West Asia and Central Asia region at minus 0.3 percent, citing the prolonged disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as one reason for the downgrade.</p>