New York Fed's Williams Lowers the Odds of an October Rate Hike

On Wednesday, September 30, 2026 (8 Mehr 1405), according to EcoIran, John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a permanent voting member of the FOMC, said the Fed is in no rush to raise rates again. Based on fed funds futures pricing, his remarks cut the market implied probability of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27 to 28 meeting from about 70 percent to near 50 percent, with some estimates putting it as low as 42 percent. The Fed had raised rates by 25 basis points in September, its first hike since 2023, to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent. Williams projected US inflation would reach 3.5 percent this year and return fully to the Fed's 2 percent target by 2028. The same day, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both stressed the continued need for tight monetary policy, while Fed governor Michael Barr said further policy tightening would likely be needed to bring inflation back to target on a reasonable timeline.