OECD Forecasts 2.9% Global Growth and Names Oil as the Main Risk

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in its September 2026 Interim Economic Outlook titled "Resilience in the face of successive shocks", forecast global growth of about 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. According to EcoIran's report on Wednesday, September 23, 2026 (1 Mehr 1405), the OECD projects US growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, about 1% for the euro area in both years, and 4.5% for China in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.

The OECD's baseline assumes Brent crude averages about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and about $85 in 2027, and warns that continued disruption to energy output and exports, or restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, could keep energy prices higher for longer. It forecasts G20 inflation of about 4.1% in 2026 and expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates once more in the fourth quarter of 2026, holding them in a 4% to 4.25% range through the end of 2027. The OECD says long-term government bond yields in many major economies have reached their highest levels in 15 years or more.