Reuters July poll sees Brent crude averaging $85.22 a barrel in 2026

In the July Reuters monthly poll of 31 economists and analysts, Brent crude was forecast to average $85.22 a barrel in 2026, up from the $84.50 forecast in June. US crude was forecast to average $80.14 a barrel, against a June estimate of $79.49. So far this year the two benchmarks have averaged $87.03 and $82.41 respectively.

Tobias Keller, an analyst at UniCredit, said the main factor supporting oil prices remains geopolitical risk, which is likely to persist through the second half of the year and keep volatility elevated. Analysts at JPMorgan wrote in a note last week that every month of supply disruption adds roughly $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent, and that three months of continued disruption would push the monthly average to about $114.

OPEC has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 down for the third consecutive time, to 780,000 barrels per day. According to Reuters, sources said OPEC Plus is likely to pause its output increases for three months from October, after raising production in September.