Oil Set to End July With a Gain of Nearly 20% Despite the Recent Pullback

Crude oil prices eased over the final two days of the week, but both major global benchmarks are on course to close July 2026 with a gain of close to 20%. Oilprice reported early on Friday, 31 July 2026, that Brent was trading at $87.67 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $82.07 at the time of writing, both down about 1% from Thursday. By the middle of that same Friday, Trading Economics data showed Brent had slipped further to around $85 and WTI to around $82.

The recent decline follows reports of more tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz, even as hostilities between Iran and the United States continue. John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, told Reuters there is a sense in the market that "a lot of supply" is waiting to hit once the situation is resolved, which weighs against any dramatic price rise. ING commodity strategists wrote in a note that the number of crossings is still in single digits, and that some of the shuttling of oil across the strait will not show up in tracking data because transponders are switched off.

On the bullish side, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is running low and the Department of Energy has said releases will have to stop soon, removing a factor that has helped keep prices in check.