OPEC+ Turns to the Fight Over Members' Real Capacity as 2027 Quotas Are Set From Sustainable Output

Oilprice reported on 28 July 2026, citing sources speaking to Reuters, that after its 2 August meeting OPEC+ moves into a harder phase: deciding how much production capacity each member actually has. The group is reviewing the maximum sustainable production capacity of its members, the measure that will be used to set 2027 baseline quotas. Iraq and several other producers want higher quotas to reflect investments that have expanded their capacity.

According to the report, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman are expected to raise the September target by about 188,000 barrels a day at the 2 August meeting and then halt the monthly increases. One source said current production targets would stay in place from October until new quotas take effect in January 2027, though no final decision has been made. The pause would leave about 2 million barrels a day of group-wide cuts in place through the end of 2026.

Recent events have made the capacity count considerably messier. The Iran war has reduced exports from several West Asian members and cut deeply into the group's effective spare capacity, Iraq remains constrained by export bottlenecks, Kazakhstan has reduced production after attacks disrupted Black Sea loadings, and Russia is dealing with refinery and terminal outages. The International Energy Agency expects a substantial surplus if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover.