OPEC+ on course to pause monthly output increases from October, with a 188,000 bpd September rise on the table

Reuters, citing sources in a report published on Wednesday 29 July 2026, said OPEC+ is likely to approve a further increase of 188,000 barrels per day for September when it meets on 2 August. That would match the increases announced for June, July and August, and would complete the return of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary production cut agreed in 2023.

According to the report, production targets are likely to remain unchanged from October until new quotas take effect in January 2027, although no final decision has been made. The planned pause would leave about 2 million barrels per day of OPEC+ cuts in place until the end of 2026.

The group must also set 2027 quotas based on a review of members' maximum production capacity, a process in which Iraq is seeking a higher quota. The Iran war has reduced exports from some West Asian producers and lowered the group's spare capacity, Kazakhstan has cut output after attacks on Black Sea export routes, and Russia is dealing with refinery and oil terminal disruptions. Despite higher targets in recent months, the group's actual output has fallen. The International Energy Agency expects a large surplus if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fully recover.