Reuters: OPEC+ likely to pause unwinding its next layer of voluntary cuts for three months from October

Reuters reported from London on Wednesday 29 July 2026, citing sources familiar with the talks, that OPEC+ producers are likely to pause the unwinding of their next layer of voluntary output cuts for three months from October, once the September unwind programme ends. On that basis, roughly 2 million barrels a day of voluntary cuts would remain in place beyond September until members decide how to distribute the next tranche.

OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that seven members of the alliance, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, are likely to agree at their 2 August meeting (11 Mordad 1405) to unwind a further 188,000 barrels a day for September, the same amount set for June, July and August. Agreed quota increases have not materialised in practice, however, because the war between the United States and Israel and Iran has forced West Asian producers to cut exports.

One source said members' output volumes would not change again this calendar year, with current levels held until new quotas take effect in January 2027. A separate layer of cuts of about 2 million barrels a day, begun in 2022, runs to the end of 2026. OPEC+ is reviewing members' maximum sustainable production capacity to set 2027 baselines, and Iraq is pressing for a larger quota. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said much of the question over members' future output depends on developments in West Asia. The International Energy Agency has forecast a significant supply surplus in the 2027 oil market, depending on whether the disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is resolved.