Reuters Poll: All 71 Economists Expect the ECB to Lift Its Deposit Rate to 2.75% in December, With Euro Zone Inflation at 4% in October

A Reuters poll of 71 economists, conducted on 10 to 12 November 2026 (19 to 21 Aban 1405), shows every respondent expects the European Central Bank to raise its deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point to 2.75% at its December meeting. The ECB had already raised rates in June and September, so a December move would be its third tightening step this year. Of the 71 economists, 46 see 2.75% as the peak, while 25 think another increase could follow in the first quarter of 2027.

Euro zone inflation reached 4% in October, double the 2% target and the highest in three years. Economists have raised their average inflation forecasts to 3.1% for 2026 and 2.8% for 2027, and see core inflation rising from an average of 2.6% in the fourth quarter to 2.8% in the first quarter of 2027. Growth is forecast at 1.1% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027. Economists warn the recent fall in oil prices does not remove the inflation risk, since European gas stocks are low ahead of winter.