Turkey's Central Bank Governor Raises This Year's Inflation Forecast

Fatih Karahan, governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye (TCMB), raised the country's forecast for year end inflation in the current calendar year from the bank's previous estimate, speaking at the release of its third quarter 2026 Inflation Report in Istanbul on Thursday, August 13, 2026 (22 Mordad 1405), according to Bourse News. He said the upward revision reflects a higher assumed pass through of import prices to the Turkish lira, driven by moves in diesel, natural gas and other commodity prices.

Karahan said inflation's pace of increase has slowed in recent months under the bank's tight monetary policy stance, but the bank expects the rate to accelerate again in coming months. He kept the bank's forecasts for year end 2027 inflation at 15 percent and 2028 at 9 percent unchanged. Official data show Turkey's monthly consumer inflation reached 1.78 percent in August (Mordad), while annual inflation eased slightly to 31.75 percent. The TCMB held its policy rate unchanged at 37 percent last month for a fourth consecutive meeting.