UAE's OPEC exit shakes 65 year old oil alliance as Abu Dhabi confirms gradual output increase plan

The United Arab Emirates, which formally left OPEC at the beginning of May 2026, said on Tuesday, August 4, 2026 (13 Mordad 1405) that it will continue pursuing its long standing goal of raising oil production, according to Daily Sabah. Abu Dhabi said the increase would come "in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions."

OPEC, founded in Baghdad in September 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, now has 11 members following the UAE's departure, holding more than 80 percent of the world's proven oil reserves. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told Daily Sabah that the UAE's exit removes one of the alliance's few members able to quickly raise output, which could make it harder for OPEC to calibrate supply and stabilize prices.

For now, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has limited the decision's impact on global oil prices, since much of the crude produced by Gulf states including the UAE and Saudi Arabia cannot be exported. Michael Brown, a research strategist at Pepperstone, said that if the UAE reaches its production target once the war ends, the move could help speed a return of prices to pre war levels.