Unconfirmed Ceasefire Trade

The Ceasefire Nobody Signed: Gold Fell 3.3% and the Dollar 1.8% on a Day the Global Ounce Did Not Move at All (Saturday, 25 July 2026)

On Saturday, 25 July 2026 (3 Mordad 1405), 18 karat gold fell 3.29%, the Emami coin 2.18% and the free market dollar 1.80% in Iran. Yet the global gold ounce did not move at all, because world markets were closed for the weekend. That makes the entire decline a domestic bet on a story no side has officially confirmed: a reported 10 day ceasefire proposal. Sahmino measures the gap between what the market priced and what is actually verified. This analysis is not buy or sell advice.