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Neutral, dated analysis and explainers across Iran’s markets.
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Prices · Currency

Currency · Analysis

Iran's Official Exchange-Centre Dollar Stayed About 93,000 Tomans Cheaper Than the Free Market Today; the Services-FX Quota Turns That Gap Into an Opportunity (Saturday, October 3, 2026)

Tehran's free market dollar hit 268,500 tomans on Saturday, October 3, 2026, while the official Exchange Centre rate held near 175,228 tomans, a gap of about 93,272 tomans. The Central Bank has just raised the personal services-FX quota from 1,000 to 10,000 dollars for eligible students, patients and travelers; this report explains how to use it an…

7 min read · 3 October

Currency · Analysis

The iPhone 18 Pro Equals About 17 Months of Iran's 1405 Minimum Base Wage, and 11.5 Grams of Gold; 94% of Its One-Year Rial Price Rise Was the Exchange Rate (Thursday, 10 September 2026)

At Apple's official 1,199 dollars and the free-market dollar of 232,700 tomans recorded on 9 September 2026, the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro converts to 278.9 million tomans: about 16.8 months of Iran's 1405 minimum base wage, roughly 3,220 working hours, and 11.5 grams of 18-karat gold. Of its 168 million toman one-year rise, about 94% came from the excha…

15 min read · 10 September

Currency · News

Apple launched the iPhone 18 Pro $100 dearer, a gap that reaches $300 at one terabyte, and priced the foldable iPhone Duo at $1,999 (Thursday, 10 September 2026)

Apple introduced the iPhone 18 Pro, the Pro Max and its first foldable, the iPhone Duo, on Wednesday, 9 September 2026. The 256GB iPhone 18 Pro costs $1,199, $100 above the iPhone 17 Pro, but at one terabyte the gap reaches $300. At a free-market dollar of 232,700 tomans on 9 September 2026, the Pro works out to about 279 million tomans for an Iran…

15 min read · 10 September

Currency · News

Hemmati Says Central Bank Has Supplied $500 Million in Negotiated-Rate FX to the Parallel Market; Gap With the Free Dollar Still 21 Percent (Thursday, Shahrivar 5, 1405)

Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said Thursday, Shahrivar 5, 1405 (August 27, 2026) the bank has supplied $500 million in negotiated-rate FX to the parallel market to curb "fake FX jobs," with more available if needed. Sahmino's board put today's negotiated dollar at 158,039 tomans against a free-market dollar near 200,600 tomans, a gap of…

6 min read · 27 August

Currency · News

Dollar, Gold and Coin All Pulled Back Today; Dollar Retreats From a 204,820-Toman Peak to the 200,000-Toman Range (Tuesday, August 25, 2026)

On Tuesday, August 25, 2026, Tehran's free-market dollar retreated to about 200,000 tomans this evening after a two-day surge that had taken it to a peak of 204,820 tomans; global gold, domestic 18-karat gold and the Emami gold coin fell together. A day earlier, Central Bank Governor Abdolnasser Hemmati had announced $175 million a day in FX supply…

7 min read · 25 August

Currency · Analysis

US Producer Inflation Cooled to 4.7% in July, Down From 5.5% in June, But the 10-Year Treasury Yield Stayed High (Sunday, August 16, 2026)

US producer prices (PPI) rose 4.7% year over year in July, down from 5.5% in June and softer than economists expected; a day earlier, consumer inflation had already come in calmer than feared. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield stayed elevated through Friday, August 14, a gap that keeps the path of the dollar and global gold, and from there Tehran's co…

6 min read · 16 August

Currency · News

Turkish Lira Hits Fresh Record Low of 47.76 Against the Dollar on Wednesday; Turkey's Central Bank Releases Its Quarterly Inflation Report Tomorrow

The Turkish lira touched a fresh all-time low against the US dollar on Wednesday evening, August 12, 2026, crossing 47.75, even as annual inflation eased for a fourth straight month. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) releases its quarterly Inflation Report tomorrow, Thursday, August 13, a release that has historically moved the lira…

5 min read · 12 August

Currency · Analysis

Inflation at 83.9 Percent Has Outrun Money Growth of 53.3 Percent; the 30.6 Point Gap the Printing Press Did Not Create (Friday, 31 July 2026)

Iran's broad money reached about 15,581 thousand billion tomans at the end of 1404 (March 2026), growing about 53.3 percent. Yet year-on-year inflation in Tir 1405 (July 2026) stood near 83.9 percent, roughly 30.6 points ahead of money growth. The printing press did not create that gap: velocity, inflation expectations and the nearly 39,600 toman d…

10 min read · 31 July

Currency · Analysis

The Ceasefire Nobody Signed: Gold Fell 3.3% and the Dollar 1.8% on a Day the Global Ounce Did Not Move at All (Saturday, 25 July 2026)

On Saturday, 25 July 2026 (3 Mordad 1405), 18 karat gold fell 3.29%, the Emami coin 2.18% and the free market dollar 1.80% in Iran. Yet the global gold ounce did not move at all, because world markets were closed for the weekend. That makes the entire decline a domestic bet on a story no side has officially confirmed: a reported 10 day ceasefire pr…

9 min read · 25 July

Currency · Analysis

Iran 2026 in the Mirror of The Economist: Civilizational Weight Against Economic Reality

The Economist's annual "The World Ahead 2026" special does not put Iran on the cover, yet Tehran recurs through its pages: a player with real geographic and civilizational weight, but an economy that constrains its ability to "enter the game." With the free-market dollar near 187,700 tomans, point-to-point inflation close to 88 percent, and the IMF…

9 min read · 21 July

Currency · Analysis

Zarif Angered Both Washington and Tehran; But the Story Reaches Your Wallet

In a Foreign Affairs essay, Mohammad Javad Zarif calls for a security and economic order built by the region's own countries. This Sahmino analysis lays out his argument, the serious criticisms of it, and the likely consequences for the dollar, gold, the bourse and Iran's economy under two scenarios: de-escalation and continued war.

18 min read · 21 July

Currency · News

Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire "Over"; Rial Smashes Through 180,000 Toman, Tehran Stock Exchange Sheds 52,000 Points (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)

Donald Trump told the NATO summit in Ankara that the ceasefire with Iran is "over." Hours later, on Wednesday, July 8, 2026 (17 Tir 1405), Iran's free-market dollar broke through 180,000 toman and the Tehran Stock Exchange's main index fell 52,012 points (1.9%) to the 2.68 million range. Brent crude jumped about 7% globally.

6 min read · 9 July

Currency · News

US Revokes Iran Oil Sales Waiver; Brent Crude Tops $76 After Attacks on Three Tankers in Hormuz (Wednesday, July 8, 2026)

The US Treasury revoked Iran's dollar oil sales waiver (General License X) on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, hours after an attack on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, replacing it with a narrower "General License X1." No new sales are authorized, and in-process transactions have until July 17 to settle. Brent crude jumped to $76.04 a barrel in after-…

6 min read · 8 July

Currency · Analysis

Iran Kicks Off $2bn Industrial FX Allocation; Central Bank Adds $4.5bn to Reserves, Vows No Return to Subsidized Rate (Monday, July 6, 2026)

Iran's central bank governor says the country's foreign currency reserves grew by $4.5 billion during the recent war months, and that a first $2 billion phase of industrial FX allocation began Saturday, July 4. Governor Hemmati stressed the bank will not revive the old subsidized "preferential rate" system. The move coincides with revenue from a te…

5 min read · 6 July

Currency · Analysis

From Barter to an "Offshore Rial": Iran Seeks to Formalize Rial Afghani Trade Settlement (Saturday, July 4, 2026)

The head of the Iran Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce says Iran's goal is to turn the traditional rial afghani barter system into a formal banking platform, reducing exporters' reliance on third currencies. Under the latest official Afghan data (November 2024), Afghanistan exported only about $30 million worth of goods to Iran while importing…

6 min read · 4 July

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