Two markets, two opposite directions. At midday on Sunday, 28 Khordad 1405 (19 July 2026), with the trading session in progress, the market shows an open contradiction. On one side the free dollar stands at a fresh record near 194,500 toman and a gram of 18-karat gold has settled into the 19-million-toman channel; on the other, the Tehran bourse is trading about 0.6 percent below yesterday's close by 11 a.m. and, if the trend holds to the bell, will book its ninth consecutive losing session. The key point today is exactly this divergence: a weaker rial should, in theory, be a fundamental support for export-oriented and dollar-linked shares, but for now it is lost under the weight of geopolitical risk, and money prefers to shelter in the dollar and gold rather than in equities.
Today at a glance
The headline numbers in one view (the reference date and time for each figure is in the last column):
| Market | Level | Change | Reference time |
|---|
| TEDPIX (overall index) | about 4.75 million | -0.59% (intraday) | Sun 19 Jul, 11 a.m. |
| Equal-weighted index | about 1.3 million | -0.27% | Sun 19 Jul, 11 a.m. |
| Free-market dollar | about 194,500 toman | +3.13% (record) | Sat 18 Jul, evening |
| Exchange-Center remittance dollar | about 150,237 toman | little changed | Sat 18 Jul, morning |
| 18-karat gold (per gram) | about 19.14 million toman | +4.9% | Sat 18 Jul, evening |
| Emami coin | about 190 million toman | +2.71% | Sat 18 Jul, evening |
| Emami coin premium | about 6 million toman | -19% | Sat 18 Jul, evening |
| Global gold (spot) | about $4,020 | little changed | Sun early hours |
| Brent crude | about $88.1 | +4.4% | Sun early hours |
| Bitcoin | about $64,884 | +0.34% | Sun early hours |
Today's headlines
- The bourse heads for a ninth negative session: by 11 a.m. Sunday the overall index was trading around 4.749 million, about 0.59 percent below Saturday's close (about 4.777 million); the market is "open," and if the trend holds it books a ninth straight losing session (Sun 19 Jul, 11 a.m.).
- Bourse vs parallel-market divergence: while the dollar and gold stand at records, the equal-weighted index is also down about 0.27 percent, meaning today's decline is not confined to large caps and the whole market remains thin (Sun 19 Jul, 11 a.m.).
- The dollar record and the two-rate gap: the free dollar is in a record zone near 194,500 toman, and its gap with the Exchange-Center remittance rate (about 150,237 toman) has widened to nearly 44,000 toman (Sat 18 Jul).
- Domestic gold in the 19-million channel, coin premium compressed: yesterday's near-5-percent jump in gram gold was mostly a rial move, and because the coin rose more slowly, the Emami coin premium deflated about 19 percent to around 6 million toman (Sat 18 Jul, evening).
- Oil at the $88 line: the continued limits on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have kept Brent up more than 4 percent near $88.1, keeping a risk premium alive in the energy market (Sun early hours).
Stocks
This is today's live story. The TEDPIX overall index of the Tehran Stock Exchange is trading around 4.749 million by 11 a.m. Sunday, down about 0.59 percent (roughly 28,000 points) from Saturday's close (about 4.777 million); the market is "open," and if this holds to the bell the bourse books its ninth consecutive losing session. The equal-weighted index is also down about 0.27 percent, so the selling pressure is not limited to large caps. Turnover remains thin, and real-money flow has been an outflow in recent sessions. The market's fundamental contradiction is the one noted in the lead: the fresh dollar record is a profit driver for export-oriented and dollar-linked companies, but geopolitical risk and uncertainty over the outcome of regional talks have let risk aversion outweigh the incentive to buy; the net of these two forces has so far favored sellers. Live index and ticker data are on the Sahmino bourse index page.
Separating fact from outlook: the intraday drop is "what has happened"; whether the market recovers in the second half of the session, and when exactly rial weakness finally shows up as a tailwind for dollar-linked shares, are in the realm of conjecture, not settled fact.
Currency
The quiet driver of every domestic market these days is a single number: the free-market dollar rate. As of the last reliable update (Saturday evening), the free dollar traded in a record zone near 194,500 toman, up more than 3 percent in a day and above the roughly 191,000-toman record set at the start of the week. On the official side, the remittance dollar at the Iran Currency and Gold Exchange Center was about 150,237 toman at its last update. That puts the gap between the free and exchange rates at about 44,000 toman (near 23 percent of the free rate), one of the widest gaps in recent months. This divergence is less a new domestic monetary event than a reflection of the geopolitical mood and expectations around the outcome of regional talks. Live rates are on the Sahmino currency page.
Gold and coin
After yesterday's heavy jump, the domestic gold market is consolidating in its new channel today. A gram of 18-karat gold, at its last reliable update (Saturday evening), rose about 4.9 percent to 19,138,000 toman and entered the 19-million channel for the first time. The key point is that this jump was mostly "rial-driven," not "global": spot gold held around $4,020 and barely moved over the same window, so the engine of the domestic rise was the fresh dollar record, not a spot rally. The Emami coin reached about 190 million toman (up 2.71 percent). Because the coin itself rose more slowly than melt gold, the intrinsic gold value inside the coin grew faster than its market price, so the coin premium (hobab) compressed about 19 percent, from around 7.2 million toman to about 6 million toman. The practical meaning for a household is simple: on days when gold rises fast, the coin's price gap to its intrinsic value shrinks and paying the premium for a coin is temporarily lower-risk. More detail on the Sahmino gold page.
Crypto
The global crypto market is calmer than during last week's tense days. Bitcoin traded around $64,884 (up a slight 0.34 percent) in the early Sunday hours and Ethereum around $1,868 (up 0.44 percent); both are a little above last week's lows. Domestically, the toman price of Tether usually tracks the free dollar, so much of the toman price of crypto these days simply reflects the dollar record rather than a change in the global price. The usual reminder: the global crypto price is measured in dollars, and the toman price embeds the exchange rate.
Iron and steel
In the steel market, the factory price of Arian Foulad rebar, at its last update (Sunday 19 July), was quoted in the range of 67,000 to 69,000 toman per kilogram depending on size and grade (for example, size-12 rebar around 67,820 toman and size-10 around 69,000 toman). Two external drivers shape this market: the exchange rate, which lifts input costs and the export price floor, and global steel and energy prices. With the fresh dollar record, the rial price floor firms up; but the other side of the equation is real construction demand, which has been weak in recent months and has capped any noticeable price jump.
Cars
In this environment the car market is waiting rather than active. For heavily traded models such as the Pride 151, market prices are quoted around 1.1 billion toman. The market margin (the gap between the factory price and the open-market price) is still sensitive to the dollar and to inflation expectations; a fresh currency record usually shows up with a lag, as higher asking prices from sellers, but until real buyers step in these increases stay mostly on paper. Factory pricing policy (the Competition Council and the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade) sets the supply side.
Building materials
In the materials market, the price of cement is driven less by the daily swing of the currency than by energy costs and seasonal construction demand. Bulk Portland type-2 cement in Tehran was about 4 million toman per ton at its last update. In the warm half of the year, with periodic energy limits, supply is usually cautious, but weak project demand has capped any price jump.
Regional and global backdrop
The axis of the global market these days is still the "risk premium." Brent crude stands up more than 4 percent near $88.1; worry over the continued limits on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has kept the energy market bid, and for Iran that is a double-edged sword: it raises oil-export revenue on one side while being the root of the very risk that has made the dollar and gold expensive on the other. Spot gold held around $4,020 with little movement, meaning the domestic gold rise this time was homemade (rial-driven). The dollar index (DXY) is near 100.8 and little changed, and it drifted slightly lower over the past week on softer US inflation data; the market prices only about a 12 percent chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month and about 56 percent in September, which for now eases pressure on global gold. In the neighborhood, the main channel to Tehran is still trade and energy: the dollar record automatically lifts the toman price of import-base currencies such as the Chinese yuan and the dirham. For a deeper read on how this tension affects Iran's economy, see Sahmino's analysis of southern Iran under fire.
What to watch today
- The second half of the bourse session: whether the overall index recovers the intraday drop by 12:30 p.m. or books a ninth straight negative close, and how real-vs-legal money flow behaves in export-oriented and dollar-linked names.
- The free dollar and domestic gold: whether yesterday's record consolidates or corrects on negotiation news, and whether the coin premium stays in this compressed 6-million-toman zone.
- The Exchange-Center rate: whether today's agreed rate moves closer to the free-dollar record or holds the 44,000-toman gap.
- Global spot gold and Brent: gold's stability near $4,000 and oil's behavior at the $88 line are the two external anchors of the domestic market.
- The events calendar: follow upcoming shareholder meetings and economic events on the Sahmino market calendar.
This report is a picture of "what has happened by midday today"; the decision to buy or sell is yours, and this text offers no trading advice.
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