Before any figure or table, one thing must be said: what is unfolding across southern and southeastern Iran these days is, before it is an economic story, a human tragedy. The Sahmino team extends its deep condolences to the bereaved families and to every compatriot living through these hard days in Hormozgan, Khuzestan, Bushehr and Sistan-Baluchestan. This report tries, within Sahmino's usual framework, to give an honest picture of the economic dimensions of this crisis and the likely paths ahead, without reducing the human suffering behind it to a row in a price table. This analysis is not buy or sell advice.
What happened
From the closing hours of Thursday, 25 Tir, and through the night and day of Friday, 26 Tir 1405 (17 July 2026), the wave of US strikes on southern and southeastern Iran entered its sixth consecutive night. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the wave hit Iran's "command centers, air-defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities," including in Bandar Abbas. According to media reports, explosions were heard in Ahvaz, Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Bandar Khamir, Sirik, Bushehr and near Iranshahr airport.
According to Hormozgan provincial officials (cited by Al Jazeera, 17 July), six bridges were struck, including the Gariyeh bridge on the Bandar Abbas to Khamir and Lar route and two bridges on the Kahurestan to Lar road, plus a secondary rail station in Bandar Abbas. The strikes appear aimed at cutting the road and rail links connecting Bandar Abbas, the country's largest port, to the interior. A naval watchtower at Chabahar port was also damaged. In a separate strike on the Bambur garrison in Iranshahr, Iran's army reported seven soldiers killed.
On the human toll, official figures differ slightly and must be reported with caution: the government spokesperson said more than thirty civilians had been killed in recent days of strikes on the south; in the latest tally, Iran's health ministry (cited by Press TV, 17 July) said that as of Friday morning 38 people had been killed and more than 400 wounded, some of whom had been discharged after treatment. For the first time, Iran officially confirmed a strike on electricity infrastructure, and the energy ministry asked residents of southern provinces to cut power use.
In response, based on regional media reports and Iran's army statements, Tehran carried out drone and missile strikes on US-linked positions in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar and the Kurdistan region of Iraq, including the Al Udeid base in Qatar, the Ali Al Salem base in Kuwait, and US Fifth Fleet positions in Bahrain. These events follow the collapse of the Islamabad understanding, which Sahmino examined in detail in last week's Market Pulse report.
The Oman meeting: unclear, but not cancelled
Sahmino's Friday-morning report had noted the planned Iran-US meeting for Saturday, 27 Tir in Oman. As of Friday evening the picture is this: contrary to some scattered reports, there is no confirmed official statement from Oman's foreign ministry or the White House cancelling the meeting, and Washington still stresses its "commitment to negotiation." (Note: reports quoting Oman on a "definitive" cancellation of talks refer to an older event, the cancellation of the sixth round during last year's twelve-day war, and should not be confused with the Saturday, 27 Tir 1405 meeting.)
On the other side, Tehran's new posture has sharply chilled the mood: Iran's foreign-ministry spokesperson has said that under current conditions Iran "has no plan to negotiate and is focused on defense," and the foreign minister had earlier stressed that as long as threats continue, talks on a final deal will not begin. Put simply, whether or not this meeting is held in the shadow of the strikes has itself become the market's single biggest unknown.
How markets reacted
The Tehran bourse is closed on Thursday and Friday, so the latest equity data still reflects Wednesday, 24 Tir's close, and the first real test for stocks will be Saturday, 27 Tir. But markets that never close have given fresh signals, the most notable being the continued rise in the domestic Tether rate.
The table below shows the latest figures available as of the evening of Friday, 26 Tir 1405; each figure's reference time, in Tehran time, is in the last column. Equity and official FX figures are the close of the last working day before the holiday.
| Market / index | Latest | Change | Reference time (Tehran) |
|---|
| Domestic Tether (toman) | 193,551 | Up vs morning | Fri 26 Tir, 19:05 |
| Tether Gold / tokenized gold (USD) | 4,009 | Up 0.80% | Fri 26 Tir, 19:02 |
| Free-market dollar (toman) | 188,600 | Record, Thu close | Thu 25 Tir, 16:59 |
| Exchange-center remittance dollar (toman) | ~149,988 | Unchanged | Thu 25 Tir |
| Emami coin (toman) | 184,995,000 | Unchanged | Thu 25 Tir, 16:59 |
| Emami coin premium (toman) | 7,194,000 | Unchanged | Thu 25 Tir |
| 18-carat gold (gram, toman) | 18,245,100 | Down 0.63% | Thu 25 Tir |
| Tehran bourse main index | 4,893,834 | Down 0.63% (closed) | Wed 24 Tir |
| Farabourse main index | 38,271 | Down 0.07% (closed) | Wed 24 Tir |
| Global gold ounce (USD) | 3,972 | Down 2.26% | Thu 25 Tir, 23:55 |
| Silver ounce (USD) | 55.56 | Down 4.03% | Thu 25 Tir, 23:55 |
| Brent crude (USD) | 84.42 | Down 1.66% | Thu 25 Tir, 23:56 |
| Bitcoin (USD) | 63,279 | Down 1.45% | Fri 26 Tir, 19:02 |
| Ethereum (USD) | 1,823 | Down 2.75% | Fri 26 Tir, 19:02 |
| USD to Turkish lira | 47.06 | Up 0.05% | Thu 25 Tir |
The domestic Tether rate, which trades around the clock, climbed by Friday evening to about 193,000 tomans, a few thousand tomans above the 189,000-toman level of Friday morning. This intraday rise is the day's most important live signal and shows that the domestic parallel market, contrary to the morning's hope for de-escalation, took on fresh hedging pressure after the new wave of strikes. Tokenized gold (Tether Gold) also rose nearly 0.8%, while the global gold ounce had closed lower in its last price before the weekend break in global markets. This gap between the two data points is exactly the pattern we have described before: round-the-clock and domestic markets usually react to security events faster than official markets do.
The free-market dollar, in its last recorded official price (Thursday's close), stood at a record of around 188,600 tomans, and the Emami coin premium sat at 7,194,000 tomans, among the widest levels of recent weeks; in other words, even before the new wave of strikes, the domestic parallel market was skeptical of de-escalation. The Tehran bourse main index closed its last working week down at 4,893,834 points and stays fixed until Saturday's reopening. To be honest, that number is a snapshot of the last trading moment, not the stock market's reaction today.
Impact across investment areas
This section is only a framework for understanding mechanisms and is not buy or sell advice.
Currency and the parallel market: southern Iran is the hub of nearly all the country's oil and goods export routes; every fresh security headline from this region keeps hedging demand for dollars and Tether elevated. The Friday-evening rise in the domestic Tether rate is a live example of this mechanism. If the strikes continue, the market's general expectation (not Sahmino's advice) is that pressure on the free rate and its gap with the official rate will widen.
Gold and coins: the coin premium, already widening, is usually the first place domestic fear shows itself, because buying a coin means holding a physical, portable asset. The key point these days is the divergence in direction: the global ounce lower, but domestic gold and coins resilient or rising because of the FX component.
Tehran bourse: some of the market's large symbols, especially in steel, petrochemicals and refining whose facilities or target markets are in the south, come under scrutiny on reopening timing and operational risk; war-damaged symbols had already stayed closed for weeks. On the other side, a continued rise in the FX rate can make export-oriented companies look more attractive, at least nominally, which makes separating nominal from real return more important in an inflationary environment.
Energy, oil and petrochemicals: Hormozgan (the Bandar Abbas refinery and port), Bushehr (the Pars special energy zone) and Khuzestan (oil fields and the Abadan refinery) are effectively the country's energy-export engine. Damage to energy infrastructure or a temporary halt of operations in these areas directly affects export capacity and FX revenue. In the global market, Brent crude rose about 14% over the week and topped 86 dollars at the week's peak; its last recorded price before the weekend was around 84.4 dollars.
Shipping and ports: Bandar Abbas is Iran's largest container port and the main gateway for imported consumer goods. Damage to six bridges and the port's rail link raises the cost and time of moving goods from the port into the country, an effect that, with a lag, passes into imported-goods prices and ultimately consumer inflation. At the same time, ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped sharply; according to Reuters, only seven vessels passed on Wednesday, the first full day after the naval blockade returned, versus 13 the day before, a two-month low.
Steel, cement and energy-intensive industries: a significant share of the country's steel and aluminum capacity is concentrated in Hormozgan. The combination of planned power cuts (Tavanir had earlier reported a drop of nearly 4,200 megawatts in grid capacity) with the official confirmation of a strike on electricity infrastructure in that same region has made these industries' production risk more tangible in the short term.
Housing and cars: these two markets usually react with a lag to the FX rate; the price floor set by the dollar's record will likely hold in the coming weeks too, though transaction volume in affected areas may dip temporarily.
Crypto: global Bitcoin and Ethereum track US monetary policy more than developments in southern Iran, and both were slightly lower on Friday; but domestic Tether remains a full mirror of the FX rate and is the first indicator to show the domestic market's reaction to security news.
Three paths ahead: Sahmino's scenario framework
Sahmino does not give firm forecasts, and this section, as always, is only a framework for monitoring, not investment advice. Given the uncertainty over the fate of the Oman meeting, three likely paths are these:
| Scenario | Main driver | Likely market effect |
|---|
| Further escalation | Continued or expanded strikes and the effective collapse of the Oman meeting | Fresh records for the dollar, gold and the coin premium; more selling pressure on the bourse |
| De-escalation with parallel pressure | Holding or reviving the Oman meeting despite the strikes, as bargaining leverage for both sides | Sharp but two-way swings; cautious stabilization at current levels |
| Attritional tension | Continued scattered strikes without full war or a final deal | A risk premium simply locked into prices for a longer period |
The main gauge for telling which path is forming will be two simultaneous events on Saturday, 27 Tir: the Tehran bourse's first session after the holiday, and the fate of the Oman meeting. We will follow both in the Sahmino events calendar and in the Market Pulse reports.
What to watch
- Saturday's Oman meeting: is it held, cancelled or postponed? Any official statement from Tehran, Washington or Muscat will set the week's direction.
- Tether and the free-market dollar across the holiday: will Friday evening's pressure hold into Saturday's reopening?
- Tehran bourse reopening on Saturday, 27 Tir: the index's reaction and the status of southern-industry symbols and war-damaged symbols.
- The Strait of Hormuz and tanker traffic: any sign of resumption or a full halt.
- Southern power infrastructure and energy exports: the scope of the cuts and their effect on energy-intensive production.
- Global market: the path of the gold ounce and Brent crude after global markets reopen, and any fresh signal from the Federal Reserve.
This list is only for monitoring and contains no buy or sell advice.
Bottom line
What is unfolding in southern Iran is a multi-layered crisis: a human layer, in which families have lost their loved ones, and an economic layer, in which the currency, gold, the bourse and the country's industries all carry the mark of this turmoil. The rise in the Tether rate on Friday evening and the uncertainty over the fate of the Oman meeting show the market is still waiting for a bright spot. In the days ahead Sahmino will follow and report both the data and the human context of these events with its usual honesty. Until then, our hearts are with our compatriots in Hormozgan, Khuzestan, Bushehr and Sistan-Baluchestan.
This analysis is not buy or sell advice; it is only an effort to better understand the situation. Every figure carries its own reference date and time.
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