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Sahmino callsCrypto

EthereumETHNeutral

The $2,717 Ethereum support was lost on Mehr 1, and I am moving the bullish call back to neutral

Horizon: Short-term (2 to 3 weeks, through Mehr 21, 1405)

Price when published

$2,689.27

That daydown0.2%

Support

$2,635.97

Resistance

$2,801.8

Invalidation

$2,631.96

The levels on the chart

Since writtendown0.2%

Conclusion

I am going from bullish to neutral, because the support I had set myself was lost on a closing-price basis: I give about a 60 percent probability that Ethereum stays between $2,631.96 and $2,801.80 through Mehr 21. Risk: with daily volatility of 3.16 percent, this range is only about two ordinary sessions wide, and a close below $2,631.96 would invalidate this view.

The evidence

  • On Mehr 1, 1405, Ethereum closed at $2,670.13, below the $2,717.12 support card for that same day; the Mehr 2 low of $2,635.97 stayed just $4 above the invalidation level of $2,631.96 and did not break it.
  • The ETH/BTC ratio went from about 0.0328 (Shahrivar 23) to about 0.0320 (Mehr 4); Ethereum has not kept pace with Bitcoin over three weeks, and I still am not giving the relative call.
  • Bitcoin pulled back about 2.7 percent from the Shahrivar 31 close ($86,327) to Mehr 4 (about $83,995); Ethereum's decline is part of the broader crypto market pullback.
  • Macro channel: the OECD (as cited by Eghtesad Iran, Mehr 1) expects another Federal Reserve rate hike in the fourth quarter; higher rates are a headwind for risk assets like crypto.
  • Rial price: with tether at 2,341,440 rial, Ethereum on Mehr 4 is about 6,297 million rial. Since Mehr 1, it is up about 0.7 percent in dollar terms for Ethereum and about 1.35 percent in tether terms.

If it holds

If Ethereum stays above $2,631.96, the base-case scenario is range-bound trading up to $2,801.80 (the Shahrivar 30 high), depending on Bitcoin's path.

If it breaks

If it closes below $2,631.96, this view is invalidated, and the 20-day moving average of $2,578.66 is the next level.

What to watch

What to watch: the ETH/BTC ratio, Ethereum spot ETF flows, the staking withdrawal queue, and the tether rate for the rial price.

Every call on this symbol

33 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 26 September 08:47NeutralThe $2,717 Ethereum support was lost on Mehr 1, and I am moving the bullish call back to neutral$2,689.27down0.2%
  2. 23 September 08:49BullishEthereum is 40.9 percent below its one-year high and bitcoin 30.1 percent; that 11-point gap is what the ratio is telling us$2,771.3down3.0%
  3. 21 September 14:12BullishEthereum took $2,700 but its ratio to Bitcoin worsened: from 0.0324 to 0.0321, and the 0.0328 ceiling moved further away$2,712.59up2.2%
  4. 21 September 08:36BullishUntil the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio stabilizes above 0.0328, today's move past $2,653 is not a relative edge$2,663.81up1.8%
  5. 19 September 08:52BullishWe lost this call too, but Ethereum's ratio to Bitcoin improved 2.04 percent in this very rally$2,625.19up1.5%
  6. 16 September 08:46BearishEthereum closed below our published level and is sitting on the three-times-tested support at $2,360$2,400.81up9.3%
  7. 15 September 09:08NeutralThe Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio has risen 8.4 percent in four weeks, and I'm writing this on the day the price dropped 4.6 percent$2,488.39down3.5%
  8. 14 September 08:55BullishYesterday's commitment was not triggered: Ethereum closed $4.31 above $2,505, not below$2,512.88down1.0%
  9. 13 September 12:46BullishOne of our two conditions went underwater: Ethereum is below $2,505, but it's still above the line against Bitcoin$2,494.55up0.7%
  10. 9 September 08:49NeutralOur $2,505 level broke intraday but the session hasn't closed yet, and versus bitcoin it's still in a three-week range$2,505.03down0.4%
  11. 6 September 08:55NeutralThe ETH/BTC ratio has been locked at 0.031 for two weeks, so this week's dollar jump is not Ethereum strength$2,480.35up1.0%
  12. 2 September 13:50BearishEthereum broke through the $2,398 invalidation level as well, falling to $2,373; the ETH to BTC ratio has also hit a one-week low$2,372.67up4.5%