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Sahmino callsCrypto

BitcoinBTCBullish

Bitcoin fell below the $85,136 support while ETFs are still buying, but less every day

Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, until 15 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

$83,995.45

That daydown0.1%

Support

$83,042.76

Resistance

$87,253.4

Invalidation

$81,892.69

The levels on the chart

Since writtendown0.6%

Conclusion

I remain bullish because ETF money is still coming in, but I am lowering my confidence from 60 to 50 percent: I put roughly a 50 percent probability on a daily close above $87,253.40 by 15 Mehr. Risk: if ETF inflows reverse into outflows, with the 2.57 percent daily volatility two sessions are enough for the price to fall below $81,892.69, which would invalidate this view.

The evidence

  • Bitcoin closed on 1 Mehr 1405 at $84,265.30, below the $85,136.56 support, and the 2 Mehr low was $83,042.76; the invalidation level of $81,892.69 was not touched.
  • US spot ETF flows (Farside Investors) are still positive but shrinking: $999 million on 21 September, then $714.7, $346.9, $190.7 and $134.5 million through 25 September.
  • Macro channel: the OECD (quoted by Eghtesad Iran, 1 Mehr) expects another Fed rate hike in the fourth quarter; a higher real rate is a headwind for a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin.
  • Rial price: with Tether at 2,341,440 rial, Bitcoin on 4 Mehr is about 196.67 billion rial. Since 1 Mehr, the dollar price fell 0.32 percent while Tether rose 1.35 percent; the rial-denominated gain was entirely due to rial depreciation.
  • The 4 Mehr price is about $83,995, above the 20-day average of $80,359.77 and 32.67 percent below the 52-week high.

If it holds

If Bitcoin stays above $83,042.76 (the 2 Mehr low) and ETF inflows continue, the base scenario is a return to $87,253.40 (the 1 Mehr high).

If it breaks

If it closes below $81,892.69, the bullish view is invalidated and the price returns to the area before the 30 Shahrivar jump, around $81,000 and lower.

What to watch

What to watch: daily spot ETF flows, futures funding rates, Fed data, and the Tether rate for the rial price.

Every call on this symbol

35 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 26 September 08:48BullishBitcoin fell below the $85,136 support while ETFs are still buying, but less every day$83,995.45down0.6%
  2. 23 September 08:36BullishETF data rejected my reason yesterday for the $86,984 breakout: $1.7 billion in inflows over two sessions$87,169.28down3.6%
  3. 22 September 08:51NeutralThe $85,020 resistance fell in that very session; today's question is the quality of that break, not its direction$85,363.61up2.1%
  4. 21 September 13:38BullishBitcoin rose 4.27 percent and tether fell 0.07 percent; meaning this time all the gain was global and none of it came from rial weakness$84,592.2up0.9%
  5. 21 September 11:46BullishThis time $205 higher, and more important: four consecutive closes above $81,000, which had no precedent in the past month$81,907.78up3.3%
  6. 19 September 13:41NeutralBitcoin's fourth attack on the $81,000 range since August — and this time just $5 above our stated level$81,277.37up0.8%
  7. 19 September 08:50BullishOur previous card was wrong: we called it bearish and bitcoin rose 7.16 percent$81,051.86up0.3%
  8. 16 September 08:42BearishThe $76,442 floor broke and today's rebound stalled below $76,070; we are turning the stance bearish$75,706.97up7.1%
  9. 14 September 08:49NeutralThe $76,442 floor held across six sessions, but the support we lowered yesterday was rejected again$77,591.54down2.4%
  10. 13 September 12:32NeutralBitcoin fell 0.4 percent in dollar terms and 1.6 percent in toman terms; three-quarters of the loss was Tether's work$76,772.92up1.1%
  11. 12 September 11:04NeutralThis time the rial doesn't provide cover: tether fell 0.63 percent, so bitcoin's full dollar decline reached the toman price$77,321.68down0.7%
  12. 9 September 09:04NeutralBitcoin's dollar price fell 1.6 percent but its toman price didn't budge, because the rial weakened by exactly that much$79,149.19down2.3%