Sahmino callsCrypto
TetherUSDT_IRRNeutral
Tether passed this morning's card target, and its premium to the free dollar fell to just half a percent
Horizon: Short term (1 to 2 weeks, until 14 Mehr 1405)
Price when published
2,445,050 rials
That dayup3.3%
Invalidation
2,367,880 rials
The levels on the chart
Since writtenup9.1%
Conclusion
I am closing the bullish call as the target has been reached, and turning neutral: I give about 55 percent probability that Tether will not close below 2,367,880 rial by 14 Mehr, because the small premium means Tether is just tracking the free dollar, and the political risk behind it is still open. Risk: any news of talks or currency supply would bring the dollar and Tether down together.
The evidence
- Tether on 6 Mehr 1405 at 13:34: 2,445,050 rial, 3.26 percent above the 2,367,880 rial close of 5 Mehr; this morning's card target (closing above 2,369,620 rial) is recorded with today's close.
- Tether's premium to the free dollar (2,433,000 rial at the same minute): about 0.5 percent, versus about 0.8 percent at the 5 Mehr close; today's move came from the rial, not from special demand for Tether.
- Today's rise is about 2.8 times Tether's 20-day daily volatility (1.16 percent).
- The trigger, according to FXStreet (6 Mehr): Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz and his threat of further attacks, which also pushed the free dollar up 3.53 percent.
If it holds
If Tether stays above 2,367,880 rial, the base scenario is consolidation of the new step alongside the free dollar, with a premium between zero and one percent.
If it breaks
If Tether closes below 2,367,880 rial (the 5 Mehr close), this view is invalidated and today's jump has been fully given back.
What to watch
What to watch: Tether's premium to the free dollar, especially if it passes one percent, and news of possible talks this week.
Every call on this symbol
28 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written
- 28 September 13:40NeutralTether passed this morning's card target, and its premium to the free dollar fell to just half a percent2,445,050 rialsup9.1%
- 28 September 08:44BullishBitcoin down, tether up: the tether-to-free-dollar premium turned positive and the 2,369,620 rial ceiling broke intraday today2,405,030 rialsup1.7%
- 26 September 08:41BullishTether's discount to the free dollar closed from negative 2.34 to negative 0.43 percent, and it was Tether that rose2,341,440 rialsup2.7%
- 23 September 08:43NeutralTether closed lower three sessions running while free-market dollar closed higher, and the gap widened to minus 2.34 percent2,277,900 rialsup2.8%
- 20 September 14:07NeutralThe tether premium reached negative 0.05 percent, meaning today this rate has nothing to say except what the rial is saying; I'm closing the bearish call2,310,930 rialsdown1.4%
- 19 September 09:01BearishBitcoin rose 7 percent but the tether premium did not rise; this rally has not brought fresh Iranian buyers2,274,050 rialsup1.6%
- 14 September 09:03NeutralTether premium jumped from negative 0.79 to positive 1.76 percent in one day; the risk we wrote ourselves came true2,324,050 rialsdown2.2%
- 13 September 13:26BearishPrior neutral view invalidated; tether fell below the invalidation level and its negative spread widened to 0.79 percent2,288,630 rialsup1.5%
- 13 September 09:01NeutralTwo sessions have passed and tether is still below the free dollar: from negative 0.21 to negative 0.72 and now negative 0.49 percent2,326,190 rialsdown1.6%
- 12 September 11:47NeutralTether premium turns negative: 0.21 percent below the free dollar; the exact risk we wrote about activated2,346,920 rialsdown0.9%
- 9 September 14:29BullishThe 1.25 percent premium we mentioned this morning was calculated against yesterday's dollar; at today's rate, the actual premium is 0.62 percent2,332,420 rialsup0.6%
- 9 September 11:24NeutralTwo straight sessions below 2,299,940 rial rejection and Tether's premium is 1.25 percent, but our free-market dollar rate hasn't updated today2,295,230 rialsup1.6%