شترانPTEHNeutral

I remain neutral, with a slightly more bearish tilt than the previous card: I give close to a 50 percent probability that today's or the next session's final price closes below 6,570 rial (broken support), but less than a 20 percent probability that by 14 Mehr the final price goes below the cancellation line of 6,340, since that level was previously touched once and held. The main risk remains the feed and product rate formula staying without a figure, and the continued jump in Brent.

• The final prices on 7 and 8 Mehr were 6,650 and 6,700 rial, above the support of 6,570 and the cancellation level of 6,340. Today, 11 Mehr, at 10:45, the latest price is 6,500 rial (-2.99 percent), below that support; the market is open, momentary final price 6,530 rial.
• The listing opened today with a bullish gap from 6,880 rial and lost all of it to reach the session low of 6,500 rial; at the top of the board the best bid is only 5 thousand shares at 6,490 rial, against a supply queue of 422 million and 544 thousand shares at 6,500 rial.
• Buyer-to-seller strength today is 0.43 (below 1) and retail investors have net sold about 271 million shares; of the three conditions confirming retail demand (strength above 1, volume double the average, positive net retail buying), none holds.
• Brent today is 102.25 dollars, about 34 percent higher than 76 dollars in Tir (Sahmino's earlier reports). Since Shetran's feedstock is also priced with the Brent-Dubai-Oman formula, refining profit depends on the crack spread opening, not on the oil price itself.
• The 11 Shahrivar letter from the Ministry of Petroleum regarding the determination of the bases for applying the feed and petroleum product rate, which was named the main risk in the previous card, remains published on Codal without a figure as of today (35 days later).