شپناPNESNeutral

I remain neutral but raise the range: I give about 55 percent probability that no closing price below 12,340 rial will be recorded through 15 Mehr, because today's buy queue came without volume support and the ceiling of 13,470 rial from 28 Shahrivar still sits overhead. Risk: Shepna's 20-day volatility is 2.47 percent per day, so the 5.5 percent distance to the invalidation line is only about two negative sessions.

• Closing price on 6 Mehr 1405: 13,060 rial (2.83 percent growth), above the 12,720 rial resistance noted on 4 Mehr; the last trade was 13,080 rial at the band ceiling, with demand of about 9.8 million shares from 161 buyers at the same price (13:25 snapshot).
• The confirmation triad is not in place: volume of about 407 million shares against a monthly average of 791 million, and a buyer-to-seller power of 0.71; only net retail buying is positive (59.5 million shares), following two sessions of retail selling on 4 and 5 Mehr.
• Price-to-earnings ratio of 7.19 versus 6.19 for the oil products group (6 Mehr): the market pays about 16 percent more than the group for each rial of Shepna's earnings.
• Macro transmission path: today's 3.47 percent rise in Brent also raises feedstock costs, and profit comes from the crack spread, for which we don't have today's data; a jump in the free market dollar doesn't generate revenue either, since refiners' export currency returns at the agreed rate.