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Sahmino callsStocks

Noghreabi Silver FundNOGHBullish

NOGH cleared both the 14,150 and 13,940 levels from the last card; but buyer strength and volume still do not confirm it

Horizon: short term (10 trading sessions, to 20 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

14,324 rials

That dayup3.3%

Support

14,150 rials

Resistance

14,445 rials

Invalidation

13,492 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenunchanged0.0%

Conclusion

The bullish view strengthens: unlike the last card, today's close cleared both the 14,150 resistance and the 13,940 level with room to spare, and the 13,492 invalidation level was not touched. I put roughly 60% probability on this level holding through the stated horizon; but since neither the silver ounce nor the free dollar moved meaningfully today, the main risk is that the gain is just NAV convergence rather than fresh demand.

The evidence

  • NOGH's closing price today (14 Mehr 1405) rose 3.02% to 14,285 rials; it touched 14,445 rials intraday, clearing both the 14,150 resistance and the 13,940 level from the last card.
  • Still, the three-part confirmation test is not met: buyer strength was 0.72 and today's volume (238.1 million units) stayed below the monthly average (348.9 million units); only the individual net flow was positive, at 13.6 million units.
  • The price stayed above the 20-day (13,485) and 50-day (13,012 rial) averages, with 20-day volatility at 1.72%; the fund trades at a 0.87% premium to its NAV of 14,162 rials.
  • Today's gold-to-silver ratio is about 68.0 (gold at 4,152.96 dollars an ounce versus silver at 61.09); because silver is both a precious and an industrial metal, this ratio can decouple from gold during an industrial slowdown.
  • Today the global silver ounce moved only 0.03% and the free-market dollar only 0.18% (to 2,691,750 rials); so the fund's 3% rial gain looks more like NAV convergence than a global commodity or currency driver.

If it holds

If the 14,150 level (the old resistance, now support) holds, a move toward today's new high of 14,445 rials and beyond looks likely.

If it breaks

If the closing price falls below 13,492 rials, the uptrend is invalidated and a drop back under 13,940 rials becomes likely.

What to watch

Watch the path of the silver ounce and the free-market dollar in the coming days, plus the gold-to-silver ratio, to tell whether this is a global move or just NAV convergence.

Every call on this symbol

26 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 6 October 13:32BullishNOGH cleared both the 14,150 and 13,940 levels from the last card; but buyer strength and volume still do not confirm it14,324 rialsunchanged0.0%
  2. 4 October 13:25BullishNegharabi's break of the 13,940 rial resistance is confirmed with a close this time, but volume and real buying still aren't along for the ride13,830 rialsup3.6%
  3. 3 October 13:36NeutralSilver momentarily touched the 13,940 rial resistance, but the closing price has not yet confirmed it13,963 rialsdown1.0%
  4. 29 September 13:27NeutralNegharabi reached 13,752 rial; global silver grew just 0.12 percent and today's growth came from the dollar13,758 rialsup1.5%
  5. 28 September 13:22NeutralSilver chart passed the ceiling of 13,375 rial, on a day when global silver dropped nearly 5 percent13,499 rialsup1.9%
  6. 23 September 12:04NeutralSilver fell 2.4 percent and its fund 1.5 percent13,029 rialsup3.6%
  7. 21 September 13:29NeutralNagrabi fell 1.89 percent, not following its metal; silver ounce held almost steady and domestic 999 silver rose 0.51 percent13,130 rialsdown0.8%
  8. 20 September 13:28NeutralThe ceiling I had written touched and I take the profit: Noghreabi at 13,420 rial, but the engine of this trade — silver's outperformance — has stalled13,420 rialsdown2.2%
  9. 19 September 13:34BullishGold-silver ratio moved from 67.7 to 66.2: silver got ahead of the Fed, and NaghreAbi is still lagging13,218 rialsup1.5%
  10. 15 September 13:31NeutralThe 13,124 rial support broke and the bearish target was hit, now the Fed's decision is on the table13,008 rialsup1.6%
  11. 13 September 12:07BearishThe zero-premium fund fell from morning to noon to a 2.4 percent discount, but its real discount is around 0.8 percent13,389 rialsdown2.8%
  12. 13 September 08:53NeutralThe gold-to-silver ratio went from 65.0 to 67.7, the fund's premium went to zero, and our bearish view hit the target exactly13,635 rialsdown1.8%