Aref: Top Income Decile Gets 23 Times More Gasoline Subsidy Than Bottom Decile; Government Denies 80,000 Toman Price Rumor (Sunday, August 23, 2026)

Mohammad Reza Aref, Iran's First Vice President, said on Sunday, August 23, 2026 (1 Shahrivar 1405) that a 23 fold gap separates income deciles in how much they benefit from the country's gasoline subsidy: the top decile, the country's highest earning households, gets 23 times more benefit than the bottom decile. Hours later, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani formally denied an 80,000 toman (Iran's everyday currency unit, equal to 10 rials) figure that has been circulating on social media as a rumored future gasoline price, saying no new figure or pricing model has been approved.

Background

The remarks extend months of debate over reforming Iran's gasoline pricing. On July 25, 2026 the government spokesperson had said any change to gasoline quotas or price was "still under review", but only days later the same official said a decision to "rebalance" gasoline had been settled, though the method (a price hike, a quota change, or a mix of both) was not disclosed. In the same window, a pilot moving the fuel subsidy quota from fuel cards to bank cards began in Tehran on August 1 and later reached Kerman province, and by August 7 the country's daily gasoline consumption had topped 135 million liters. A real pricing reform already appeared on August 12 in Kerman, where unsubsidized "fourth tier" gasoline went on sale at 87,200 tomans across 204 stations, a price already above the 80,000 toman figure now denied. Earlier, on the first day of the Persian month of Mordad (July 23), a rumor of gasoline moving to a three tier price structure had circulated online, which officials at the time rejected.

The numbers

Under Iran's subsidy system, households are grouped into 10 income "deciles": the first decile is the lowest earning group and the tenth the highest earning. Because higher income households typically own more cars and use more fuel, they capture a larger share of the implicit gasoline subsidy, the gap between the domestic and world price; Aref said this mechanism produces the 23 fold gap between the two ends of the income spectrum. Pointing to the "several billion dollar" annual cost of subsidized gasoline to the country, he described gasoline as part of the "national wealth belonging to future generations." He said normal domestic gasoline production runs around 110 million liters a day and can reach 125 million liters under some conditions, while consumption during last year's 12 day war exceeded 150 million liters a day. Mohajerani, in response, stressed that no new price or pricing pattern has been approved so far and that any final decision must be announced to the public "transparently and directly." (Source: Eco Iran, citing Donya-e-Eqtesad, Sunday, August 23, 2026)

What is driving this

Aref did not name a specific new price or pricing model, stressing instead the need for "groundwork and cooperation" to fix the inequality. He said past governments had backed away from reforming this policy to avoid political "trouble," an admission that points to the fiscal weight of the fuel subsidy as the debate's real driver. As First Vice President, the most senior official yet to state the 23 fold gap this explicitly, his remarks carry more political weight than the spokesperson's earlier, vaguer references to the issue.

Outlook

Observers read Aref's remarks, despite the absence of a specific figure, as a sign of preparing public opinion for a possible reform of fuel policy, whether through new rationing or an expanded multi tier pricing system like the "fourth tier" already running in Kerman. This is an observers' assessment, not an announced decision, and as of this report the government has not confirmed any figure or implementation date.

Bottom line

Iran's First Vice President formally stated a 23 fold gap in how income deciles benefit from the gasoline subsidy and tied it to the multi billion dollar annual cost of subsidized fuel, while the government formally denied the 80,000 toman price figure circulating online. The key point is that gasoline price reform is still being pursued without a number or a timeline, even as a real example of such reform, Kerman's 87,200 toman "fourth tier" price, has been running for a week.

What to watch

Three signals could clarify where this is headed: any official announcement of a new price or pricing pattern by the government or the oil ministry, whether Kerman's "fourth tier" scheme spreads to other provinces, and how fully the bank card fuel subsidy transfer rolls out in the coming weeks.