Four Beginner Mistakes on the Tehran Exchange, With Real Numbers: in 63 Days AFRZ Fell 39.0% While BAMA Rose 63.6% (Monday, 9 November 2026)

"Seven common beginner mistakes" is a long list, but here we test only four against dated data: the queue, the signal, the loss and concentration. The countdown starts at number four, and number one puts two stocks side by side. Prices are the printed closing prices of the exchange, in rials. The two examples are BAMA and AFRZ; we picked them to show how widely results can scatter, not as an average of the market.

4. Buying only because the stock is in a queue

BAMA reached its high of that time, a close of 6,080 rials, on 12 September 2026 (21 Shahrivar 1405). For eight sessions afterwards each close was lower than the one before: 6,000, 5,820, 5,700, 5,620, 5,460, 5,300, 5,210 and, on 22 September (31 Shahrivar), 5,060 rials. The fall from the high to that close: (6,080 - 5,060) ÷ 6,080 = 16.8%. On 22 September the first, highest, lowest and last prices were all 5,060 rials, and according to Sahmino's report of that day a sell queue of 125,368,974 shares, without a single buy order, stood at that price.

A queue means the board is one-sided. In a buy queue a new buyer may not get the stock, and in a sell queue a seller may not be able to get out. The fall began before the 21 September Codal disclosure, and we hold no data that ties its cause to that disclosure. BAMA also came back afterwards: its intraday high was 7,670 rials on 24 October (2 Aban) and its close on 8 November (17 Aban) was 6,830 rials. The point is not the later price; it is the difficulty of exiting on the day of the queue.

3. Following a signal with no record

Every night Sahmino files some of the technical setups that completed on the market as "claims", and gives each claim a level whose breach voids it. A claim settles when it reaches its target, reaches its invalidation level, or runs out its sessions. In the settled record as read on 9 November 2026 (18 Aban 1405), the bearish MACD cross in a "rising, calm" market has 637 settled claims: 154 reached their target, 447 were invalidated and 36 expired. Hit rate: 154 ÷ 637 = 24.2%. A signal quoted without its direction, market weather, invalidation level and sample size does not say how much weight it deserves.

"Reaching the target" is not the same as the profit on a trade after fees. This record measures only claims filed earlier and says nothing about the next claim. We make no claim about any person or channel that published this signal or about anyone trading on it; the example tests the habit of trusting a signal without seeing its record.

2. Holding on in the hope of a comeback

AFRZ reached the highest close of this window, 13,510 rials, on 19 August 2026 (28 Mordad 1405) and the lowest, 8,240 rials, on 21 October (29 Mehr). The fall: (13,510 - 8,240) ÷ 13,510 = 39.0%. Getting back to the high from that low needed 13,510 ÷ 8,240 - 1 = 64.0% growth; a larger percentage loss makes the way back more lopsided. On 8 November (17 Aban) AFRZ closed at 9,190 rials: 11.5% above the low (9,190 ÷ 8,240 - 1) but still 32.0% below the high ((13,510 - 9,190) ÷ 13,510), and a return to the high from that price needed 47.0% growth (13,510 ÷ 9,190 - 1).

This section does not say where to sell; it shows that the level that voids an analysis can be written before entry, not in the middle of a fall. Sahmino's call of 5 October (13 Mehr) on AFRZ named a reference price of 8,420 rials, a target of 10,318 and an invalidation level of 8,405 rials. The 18 October (26 Mehr) close was 8,380 rials, 25 rials below that level. The condition was clear in advance, and nobody needed to rewrite it in the middle of the fall.

1. All the money in one stock

Over the same 63 days, from 19 August to 21 October 2026 (28 Mordad to 29 Mehr 1405), four readings differed:

• BAMA: 4,620 to 7,560 rials, up 63.6% ((7,560 ÷ 4,620 - 1) × 100).
• Farabourse main index: 47,853.8 to 67,443.7 points, up 40.9%.
• Tehran bourse main index (TEDPIX): 5,952,686 to 8,173,767 points, up 37.3%.
• AFRZ: 13,510 to 8,240 rials, down 39.0%.

The gap between the two stocks is 63.6 + 39.0 = 102.6 percentage points, while both indices rose. BAMA trades on the Tehran bourse and AFRZ on Farabourse; each index is written separately, not in place of the other. We chose these two stocks after seeing their results, so they are not a random sample. Someone with all their money in one stock depends on that one symbol's outcome. Spreading money across stocks does not produce a fixed return, and the correlation between stocks can also rise on falling days; it only lowers the dependence on the fate of a single symbol.

Takeaway

The four mistakes share a root: no written rule at the moment of the queue, the signal message, the fall or the choice of a stock. The number behind mistake one, a gap of 102.6 percentage points between two stocks over 63 days, shows how wide the scatter can be and is not the outcome of every investor. The calculations leave out brokerage fees, sales tax and cash dividends; the indices are price indices and the chosen window is only one window. In Sahmino's screener symbols can be filtered by distance from the high and by liquidity, and each symbol's closing price and record can then be read on its own page.