MRAM's Cash Rose 6,289 Billion Rials in Six Months, but Operating Cash Flow Was Only 773 Billion and Net Borrowing 10,088 Billion; Sahmino's Call Pays at Least as Much as It Risks Only Up to 22,727 Rials (Tuesday 10 November 2026)

Mahram Group's (MRAM) cash balance rose from 1,716 billion rials to 8,005 billion rials in the six months to 22 September 2026, an increase of 6,289 billion rials, but the rise mostly did not come from operations. Operating cash flow was only 773 billion rials, 7.5% of net profit of 10,364 billion rials, and the company took 10,088 billion rials of net borrowing. Even so, profit is 3.5 times that of the same period a year earlier, the exchange P/E is below its industry's, and the Sahmino desk has held a buy call on the symbol since the 9 November session. The question is up to what price that call still pays at least as much as it risks.

Background

Mahram makes sauces, tomato paste, pomegranate paste and vinegar at the Alborz industrial park in Qazvin. It trades as MRAM on the first market (secondary board) of the Tehran Stock Exchange, in the industry "food and beverages excluding sugar". Capital is 5,000 billion rials and the share count is 5 billion; at the 10 November 2026 close of 22,590 rials (read at 17:40, before the exchange's adjustments, which can run until about 22:00) the market value is 112,950 billion rials and the free float is 22%. The extraordinary general meeting of 12 January 2026 raised capital from 3,200 to 5,000 billion rials, all of it from retained earnings; Sahmino's calculation shows it does not dilute holders. The 20 July 2026 meeting approved a cash dividend of 850 rials per share for the year to 20 March 2026: 4,250 billion rials in total, 46.75% of earnings per share of 1,818 rials. By the company's announced schedule it was payable from 1 November 2026, and that sum equals 53% of the cash held on 22 September.

The numbers

Figures come from the standalone, unaudited interim statements for the six months to 22 September 2026 (Codal tracing number 1611797, published 22 October). They were printed in million rials and appear here in billion rials; the comparison column for the six months to 22 September 2025 is labelled "restated".

• Revenue and margins: operating revenue 72,667 billion rials against 27,301 billion, up 166%. Gross profit 24,370 against 7,596 billion; gross margin 33.5% against 27.8%. Operating profit 16,768 against 4,162 billion; operating margin 23.1% against 15.2%.
• Profit: finance costs 2,303 against 837 billion rials. Current-year tax 4,149 against 385 billion, an effective rate of 28.6% against 11.5% (our calculation). Net profit 10,364 against 2,974 billion rials, 3.5 times, and earnings per share for the period 2,073 rials.
• Rate versus volume: domestic sales for the six months were 72,229 billion rials, 90% of it (65,107 billion) the sauce group. The corrected September monthly report (tracing number 1618052) shows 18,703 tonnes sold at a printed rate of 3,481 million rials for that group through September; a year earlier it was 19,245 tonnes at 1,151 million rials and 22,152 billion rials of sales. Volume is 2.8% lower and the rate 3.0 times higher (dividing the two printed figures; our calculation). Domestic sales plus exports of 238 and services of 323, less returns of 123 billion rials, add up exactly to the 72,667 billion rials of revenue on the income statement.
• Cash and financing: cash from operations was 1,387 billion rials and tax paid 614 billion, so net operating cash flow was 773 billion rials, 7.5% of net profit (16.9% in fiscal 2025/26, 23.5% in the same six months a year earlier and 9.7% for the twelve months to September; our calculation). Borrowings received were 36,516 billion rials and principal repaid 26,428 billion: net 10,088 billion rials, 13 times operating cash flow. Interest paid was 3,023 billion and fixed-asset purchases 1,539 billion rials (128 billion a year earlier). Operating 773, less investing 1,532, plus financing 7,047, equals the 6,289 billion rise in cash; without the 10,088 billion of net borrowing, cash would have fallen by about 3,799 billion rials (our calculation).
• Balance sheet and debt: against 20 March 2026, receivables rose from 31,768 to 40,758 billion rials (28.3% more) and inventory from 8,181 to 16,352 billion (roughly doubled); tax payable went from 1,480 to 5,016 billion and dividends payable from 123 to 4,355 billion rials. Interest-bearing debt on Sahmino's fundamentals card is 25,072 billion rials against equity of 21,078 billion (1.19 times). Operating profit is 7.3 times finance costs for these six months (16,768 over 2,303; 5.0 a year earlier).
• Valuation: twelve-month net profit is 16,478 billion rials (9,088 for fiscal 2025/26 plus 10,364 minus 2,974), or 3,296 rials per share on 5 billion shares. At the 22,590-rial close of 10 November the exchange P/E is 6.85 against an industry average of 7.63 (nightly reading of 9 November), 10.2% below the industry (base: the industry). In Sahmino's screen of food-industry symbols, 46 have sales growth above 50% and a positive P/E; 11 are cheaper than MRAM (for example 4.1 and 5.1), so MRAM is not the cheapest.

Drivers and risks

Rate, not volume. Price made the revenue growth. The monthly report to 22 October 2026 (tracing number 1620980, published 27 October) shows monthly sales of 14,259 billion rials, 4.4% below September's 14,909 billion. In the sauce group volume was 3,824 tonnes against 3,638 the month before (5.1% more), but the printed rate was 7.4% lower (3,406 against 3,678 million rials). If rates stop rising and volume does not grow, revenue growth cannot keep this pace.

Cash and debt. High profit has still been turned into receivables and inventory: 8,990 billion rials of new receivables and 8,171 billion of new inventory in six months. Tax also rose from 11.5% to 28.6% of pre-tax profit and part of it is still unpaid. Finance costs are 2,303 billion rials and 7.3 times coverage makes them bearable as long as operating profit holds; but interest-bearing debt is larger than equity.

Buying and selling. Over the 14 sessions from 21 October to 9 November 2026, retail investors were net sellers in 12: they bought 33.1 million shares and sold 47.5 million, a net 14.4 million shares or about 318 billion rials (Sahmino's record from the exchange); institutions were net buyers of the same 14.4 million shares. Institutions in Iran are not necessarily "smart money" and part of their trading follows market-support mandates and unit cancellations; we report only the direction of flow. On 10 November MRAM rose 2.73% (close 22,590 against 21,990 rials) while Tehran's main index rose 2.7% (8,137,964 to 8,357,888). The last trade was 22,640 rials, equal to the daily band ceiling; volume of 2.28 million shares was 0.42 times the twenty-session average, and retail investors were net sellers of 332 thousand shares that session (reading at 17:40; the exchange adjusts figures until about 22:00). Today's rise followed the index more than it showed fresh buying.

Outlook

The Sahmino desk has held a buy call on MRAM since the 9 November 2026 session: reference price 21,990 rials, target 23,995, invalidation 21,461 and a horizon of 15 sessions. The regime at filing was "rising, high volatility" and the stance is "counted", with 8 target hits in a sample of 8: a small sample. The "flow turn" signal behind it, from the 7 November session, puts the chance of reaching that target at 81.7% (lower bound 64.0%) against 69.5% for a random entry in the same regime; the sample size of that row is not recorded, and because its lower bound sits below the random-entry figure we do not call the edge proven. The signal's farthest entry level is 23,572 rials and entry has not yet passed. The desk's whole record: of 3,294 settled stances, 1,477 (44.8%) reached target, 1,583 were invalidated and 234 expired; of 6,730 settled signals, 3,869 (57.5%) reached target, 2,681 were invalidated and 180 expired. Of the five earlier buy stances on this symbol (12 September and 3 to 6 October 2026), three reached target and two were invalidated.

The answer to "up to what price" has two levels. From the 22,590-rial close, the close is 5.9% below the target (base: the target) and 5.3% above invalidation (base: invalidation): 1,405 rials of reward against 1,129 rials of risk, about 1.24 times (the desk tool gives 1.15 from the last trade of 22,640). Reward equals risk when the entry price is the midpoint of target and invalidation: (23,994.6 + 21,460.8) / 2 = 22,727.7 rials; we take 22,727 rials as the arithmetic ceiling. At the signal's 23,572-rial ceiling only 423 rials of reward remain against 2,111 rials of risk, about 0.2 times. The 22,727 ceiling is our calculation, not a number the desk filed. If the second half of the year earns 2,073 rials per share again, as the first half did (an arithmetic scenario, not a forecast), annual earnings would be 4,146 rials and the P/E at 22,590 rials would be 5.4.

Follow this call in Sahmino's ideas and signals: target, invalidation and filing session sit side by side. The MRAM symbol page shows price and daily flow, and the view, invalidation and record open after free registration. The same test of sellers against a filing is in the KRSH report.

Bottom line

Sahmino's reading is that the rise in Mahram's cash was built more by borrowing than by sales: net borrowing of 10,088 billion rials was 13 times operating cash flow of 773 billion rials, yet profit 3.5 times higher and interest coverage of 7.3 times keep the call alive. Sahmino desk reading, session of 9 November 2026: MRAM's close holds above 21,461 rials for 15 sessions and reaches 23,995 rials; condition: reward at least equal to risk up to 22,727 rials; signal entry ceiling 23,572 rials. Horizon: 15 sessions from 9 November. Invalidation: a daily close below 21,461 rials.

What to watch

• The reopening on Wednesday 11 November 2026 at 09:00: a close above 22,727 rials means reward below risk; a close below 21,461 rials means invalidation.
• The monthly report for the month to 21 November: monthly sales against 14,259 billion rials, and the sauce group's rate and volume against the month to 22 October.
• The nine-month statements: operating cash flow against net profit (7.5% now), receivables, inventory and net borrowing.
• Retail and institutional flow on the symbol page: whether net retail selling continues and whether volume rises above the twenty-session average of 5.4 million shares.