HELZ: The Sahmino Desk's Buy Pays at Least Its Risk Only Below 59,769 Rials, Against a 63,373 Target and a 56,165 Stop (Sunday 8 November 2026)

The Sahmino desk has held a buy on HELZ (Helal Agro-Industry) since the session of Saturday 7 November 2026: target 63,373 rials, stop 56,165 rials and a 15-session horizon. On Sunday 8 November the share closed at 61,370 rials (read at 17:39, before the exchange settles its close overnight), and from there the target is only 3.3 percent higher and the stop 8.5 percent lower; both percentages use 61,370 rials as the base. The question is how far this buy is worth taking, and the arithmetic in this report puts the answer at 59,769 rials.

Background

Helal Agro-Industry is affiliated with the Iranian Red Crescent Society. According to its 12 July 2026 shareholder meeting (Codal tracing number 1568461), Iran Red Crescent Investment Company holds 349,993,552 shares, which is 70 percent of 500 million shares. HELZ was first offered on the second market of Farabourse on 17 June 2026 (12 percent of the shares; in the second stage 40 million shares were distributed at a fixed 36,518 rials, as reported by Noandish and carried in the Sahmino calendar). The first printed close was 36,563 rials, and the 8 November close is 67.9 percent above it, before counting the 2,050-rial cash dividend.

The desk's call from the 7 November session: buy, reference price 61,690 rials, target 63,373 (63,372.6), stop 56,165 (56,164.7), horizon 15 sessions. The call carries no measured probability or sample of its own. The record of all settled desk calls: of 3,235, 1,445 reached target (44.7 percent), 1,561 were stopped out (48.3 percent) and 229 expired (7.1 percent). On HELZ itself, of five earlier buy calls two reached target and three expired.

Reward and risk from the 61,370-rial close: the target is 2,003 rials away and the stop 5,205 rials away; 2,002.6 divided by 5,205.3 is 0.38. The break-even is the midpoint of stop and target: (63,373 + 56,165) / 2 = 59,769 rials, 2.6 percent below the close and 0.6 percent below the last trade of 60,130 rials. In whole-rial prices, an entry below 59,769, that is 59,768 or lower, gives a reward of at least the risk.

Key numbers

Sources for the table: the standalone unaudited six-month interim statements (Codal tracing number 1607565) and the October monthly activity report (tracing number 1623015). All amounts are in million rials as the company printed them; percentages and ratios are Sahmino calculations.

Drivers

Milk price. Milk is about 73.2 percent of seven-month domestic sales. Volume fell 13.6 percent, yet the average price per tonne rose 153 percent; in the month to 22 October alone 1,439 tonnes sold at 605 million rials per tonne, 11.1 percent above the six-month average of 544.7 million. Growth comes from price, not tonnage.

Second quarter. Subtracting the three-month statement (tracing number 1570268) from the six-month one gives second-quarter net profit of 1,813,560 million rials, 3.7 times the first quarter's 486,070; this is a Sahmino calculation from two documents.

Dividend. The 12 July meeting approved 2,050 rials per share for fiscal 1404, 34.9 percent of earnings of 5,878 rials per share and 1,025 billion rials in total; the yield at 61,370 rials is 3.3 percent. By the company's schedule on Codal, recorded in the Sahmino calendar, individual holders were paid on 26 July and corporate holders are due on 11 November 2026.

Outlook

Price. HELZ is not cheaper than its group: a P/E of 7.36 against 7.04 for agriculture and related services. In the Sahmino screener the group has 25 symbols; four of its twelve largest (GAHZ, TLIZ, BAHZ and FAAZ) have revenue growth of 140 to 156 percent at a P/E of 6.5 to 6.6. That is a selected comparison and does not find the cheapest names in the market; the motive for buying HELZ is growth and the desk's call, not cheapness.

Earnings quality. Under this income statement the fair value of agricultural output is part of operating revenue. The net rise in fair value of non-productive biological assets was 1,251,178 million rials, 72 percent of operating profit and 54 percent of net profit; it is a revaluation, not a sale. Removing only that line from both years (a simplified Sahmino calculation, not an accounting restatement) leaves net profit of 1,048,452 against 433,039 million rials, still 142 percent higher. Operating cash flow, however, is 38 percent of net profit, and receivables rose from 763,413 million rials at the end of March to 2,041,220 million at the end of September, 2.7 times.

Cash and dividends payable. Cash at 22 September was 7,526 million rials against dividends payable of 1,574,140. The balance reconciles: 842,360 at the end of March plus 1,025,000 approved minus 293,220 paid in six months. The half's payments were close to the 30 percent non-Red Crescent share of 1,025 billion rials (307,500); Sahmino's inference is that most of the balance is owed to corporate holders, including the 70 percent owner. The company has no bank debt, and 11 November is a test of that balance.

Order flow. Over the 15 sessions from 19 October to 8 November, individual investors bought 11,282,270 shares and sold 15,225,928: a net sale of 3,943,658 shares, about 0.8 percent of capital and, estimated as volume times close, about 231 billion rials. One session, 23 October, accounted for 1,810,185 shares (46 percent), and institutions bought that volume with no selling. The desk's flow-turn signal was issued on Saturday 7 November, the day individuals net-bought 65,144 shares; on Sunday 8 November they net-sold 200,490 again. Of the three flow tests (buyer strength above one, volume at least twice the average, positive individual net buying), only the first holds today: buyer strength is 7.89, but volume of 884,338 shares is 0.6 times the 1,478,803 average.

Signals. The flow-turn signal (target 64,180, stop 56,709 rials) has an 81.7 percent chance of reaching its target with a lower bound of 64.0, against 69.5 percent for a random entry in the same regime; the tool's reward-to-risk is 1.18 at the 60,130-rial last trade and 0.60 from the close, with a break-even of 60,445. The volatility-breakout signal (same target and stop as the call) shows 79.7 percent with a lower bound of 61.8, against 69.2 for a random entry. Both lower bounds sit below the random entry, so an edge is not established. Below 59,769 both rules give a reward of at least the risk. The desk's record on 6,618 settled signals: 3,790 reached target (57.3 percent), 2,651 were stopped out (40.1 percent) and 177 expired (2.7 percent).

Bottom line

A buy in HELZ pays at least its risk only below 59,769 rials; from the 61,370-rial close the ratio is 0.38. The Sahmino desk call: HELZ reaches 63,373 rials within 15 sessions from 7 November, before a close below 56,165 rials. Condition: entry only below 59,769 rials pays at least the risk. Invalidation: a close below 56,165 rials. Reading taken on 8 November 2026 at 17:39.

What to follow

• Closes in the coming sessions against 59,769 and 56,165 rials; the HELZ page in Sahmino shows the view, the stop and its record beside the day's price.
• 11 November: whether the dividend due to corporate holders is paid or rescheduled, and the nine-month balance against 1,574,140 million rials.
• The November monthly report: the milk price against 605 million rials per tonne and volume against October's 1,439 tonnes.
• The nine-month statements: operating cash flow against 874,623 and receivables against 2,041,220 million rials.
• For another case of retail flow against a desk call, see the Mobarakeh Steel report.