Half the Tonnage, Double the Rate: Ghachin's Tomato Paste Record Before Its 33 Percent Price Rise on 24 September 2026

Chin Chin Agro-Industrial Complex, ticker Ghachin, said in a group A material disclosure on Codal on Thursday, 24 September 2026, that its board had raised the sale price of its products: the base product (800-gram easy-open and 700-gram glass-jar tomato paste) rises from 2,099,000 rials to 2,799,000 rials, a 33.3% increase, effective the same day. By the company's own account, this product made up 78% of last fiscal year's revenue. The real question is how much of that rise reaches revenue, because the August monthly report shows the paste rate was already roughly double a year earlier while tonnage sold had halved.

Background

Ghachin trades on the Tehran Stock Exchange's second market in the food and beverages (excluding sugar) group, with a fiscal year ending 21 June. According to its unaudited statements for the fiscal year to 21 June 2026 (published 23 August 2026, tracing number 1586569), operating revenue was 28,527,670 million rials, up 109% from 13,640,184 million rials a year earlier. Gross profit rose from 1,267,686 to 4,047,298 million rials and net profit from 980,790 to 3,067,993 million rials. Earnings per share were 682 rials.

The price-change form puts last fiscal year's sales of the base product at 22,261,979 million rials. Dividing that by the same year's total revenue gives the 78% the form states, so the form's figure reconciles with the income statement.

The numbers

• Base product price: from 2,099,000 to 2,799,000 rials, up 33.3% (group A disclosure, 24 September 2026, tracing number 1603104)
• Base product share of revenue in the fiscal year to 21 June 2026: 78% (same form)
• Tonnage of tomato paste sold over the two months to 22 August 2026: 2,004 tons, against 4,289 tons in the same two months of 2025, down 53.3% (monthly activity report to 22 August 2026, tracing number 1588622)
• Average rate per ton of paste over the same two months: 1,645,842,814 rials, against 731,027,745 rials a year earlier, up 125.1% (same report)
• Paste sales over the two months: 3,298,269 million rials against 3,135,378 million rials, up 5.2% (same report)
• Total net sales over the two months: 3,926,121 million rials against 3,958,905 million rials, down 0.8% (same report)
• Monthly paste tonnage sold: July 2025 2,113 tons, August 2025 2,176 tons, July 2026 973 tons, August 2026 1,031 tons (Codal monthly reports; Jalali months Tir and Mordad)
• Gross margin: 9.3% in fiscal 2025 and 14.2% in the fiscal year to 21 June 2026 (Sahmino calculation from the income statement)
• Close on Wednesday, 23 September 2026: 4,560 rials, up 2.93% at the top of the daily band, with a 572,140-share buy queue at the end of the session
• Price to earnings on the exchange's published EPS: 6.69, against 8.62 for the group (nightly reading of 22 September 2026)

The rate per ton in the monthly report and the base product price in the price-change form are different measures: the first is the average rial value of a ton across all paste types, the second the price of one specific pack. What links them is the direction of travel, not the figure.

Drivers

The company attributes it to raw material costs. The 24 September disclosure says the board raised prices "following the rise in raw material prices and the resulting rise in cost of sales" to control the profit margin. The company adds that sales value will rise but "the gross profit percentage will remain unchanged", with only gross profit in rials increasing. In other words, the issuer itself does not expect a wider margin; it presents the rise as cost recovery, not a new source of profit.

The mechanism: revenue is rate times tonnage. In the first two months of the fiscal year, the rate per ton of paste rose 125% but tonnage fell 53%, and the product of the two was paste sales growth of only 5.2%. With other products also selling less, total net sales for the two months came in 0.8% below a year earlier. Through August, the volume drop had cancelled almost all of the price effect. Codal data do not say why tonnage fell, and this report claims no cause for it.

A simple worked example. If tonnage holds at its August level and 78% of revenue becomes 33.3% more expensive, total revenue rises about 26% (0.78 times 33.3%). If the gross margin stays flat as the company says, gross profit in rials grows by roughly the same proportion. This is a hypothetical calculation that assumes constant tonnage, not a forecast; if tonnage keeps falling as it did in the last two months, that 26% shrinks.

Outlook

The share has run hard before this news: its six-month return to 23 September 2026 was about 109%, and the 4,560-rial price sits about 10.4% below its 52-week high of 5,090 rials. The 50-day moving average is 4,093 rials. A price-to-earnings ratio of 6.69 against the group's 8.62 shows the market still values the company's past profit at a discount. The next test is the September monthly report, the first place to see whether paste tonnage has dropped below roughly 1,000 tons a month. The new price took effect on 24 September and will show up in the October monthly report.

Our previous call on Bama (holding above 4,362 rials until 22 October 2026) still stands as of the 23 September 2026 close at 5,050 rials.

Conclusion

Ghachin's 33% paste price rise reaches revenue only if tonnage sold does not fall below roughly 1,000 tons a month; through August, a 53% drop in tonnage had cancelled almost all of the price effect. Our reading: Ghachin holds above its 50-day average at 4,093 rials until 22 October 2026, as long as monthly paste sales stay above 1,000 tons; a close below 4,093 rials invalidates this reading. The reading is as of 24 September 2026.

What to watch

• Paste tonnage in the September 2026 monthly report and whether it stays above 1,000 tons
• The average rate per ton of paste in the October monthly report, the first month the new price applies
• Gross margin in the quarter to 22 September 2026 against 14.2% for the last fiscal year
• Ghachin's daily close relative to its 50-day average at 4,093 rials

To see the same readings side by side, open Ghachin's symbol page in Rasad's valuations view and compare its price-to-earnings ratio and margins with its group. Related reading: Bama's export disclosure and the sell queue that followed and Sahmino's screen of 1,699 TSE symbols.