Iran Market Pulse: Monday Midday, July 13, 2026; Tehran Stock Exchange Stays Below 5 Million in a Sixth Down Session as the Dollar Hovers Near 180,000 Tomans

Lead: Tehran's equity market extended its weekly slide on Monday, 22 Tir 1405 (13 July 2026). By around 11:00 a.m. the main index (TEDPIX) was down about 1.9% (roughly 94,355 points) at 4,961,293, holding below the psychological 5-million mark for a sixth consecutive session. The story of the day is a clear divergence between the bourse and the parallel markets: at the very hour stocks were red, the free-market dollar sat near 179,800 tomans and both global and domestic gold held broadly steady. Even a roughly 4% jump in Brent crude to about $79, which in theory benefits the exchange's export-oriented companies, could not offset the weight of the political risk stemming from the Strait of Hormuz tension.

Today at a glance (as of about 11:00 a.m., 22 Tir 1405)

Live equity and crypto figures refer to the middle of today's session; gold and coin figures reflect the last update on the evening of Sunday, 21 Tir (before the gold market reopened). For live quotes, follow the TEDPIX page and the currency market page.

Today's headlines

• Per capital-market outlets, in Sunday's (21 Tir) session retail trade value in shares and equity funds passed 11.5 trillion tomans (11.5 "hemat"), but sustained selling pressure drove roughly 4.5 trillion tomans of real-money (retail) outflow; that same real-money outflow continued in today's session.
• Per international news agencies, large-vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted since last week, and that disruption pushed Brent crude up about 4.2% on Monday to around $79.
• Per free-market data, the dollar rose about 1,400 tomans on Sunday and opened today near 179,600 tomans; its monthly gain now stands at about 4.4%.
• Spot gold fell for a second straight day to about $4,053, while the US dollar index (DXY) held near 101 and slightly positive.

Currency

The free-market dollar is standing near its all-time high. The rate opened Monday around 179,600 tomans, and the live toman-Tether rate (a fast proxy for the free market) printed near 179,820 tomans at 10:50 a.m. The dollar rose about 1,400 tomans the previous day, and its monthly gain has reached about 4.4%. To gauge the size of this move: a year ago on 22 Tir the free-market dollar was around 89,000 tomans, a rise of nearly 102% in one year.

Why? The main driver is the political risk from the Strait of Hormuz tension and the disruption to oil exports, which keeps hedging demand for hard currency and gold elevated. Alongside the free rate, the "agreed" (tavafoqi) / organized rate at the Iran Currency and Gold Exchange Center remains materially below the free market, and the multi-tier currency gap persists; that gap is itself a source of pricing uncertainty in the market.

Gold and coin

As of the last update on Sunday evening, 18-karat gold traded near 17,660,000 tomans a gram (+1.05%) and the Emami coin near 178 million tomans (+1.14%). The key point today: the engine of domestic gold is the dollar, not the global ounce. Domestic gold prices did not retreat despite a second daily drop in the global ounce (to about $4,053), because the rising dollar offset the ounce's decline. The coin premium (hobab) remains significant, showing that part of coin demand is emotional, driven by the current high-risk climate; we explain this in our explainer, "What is the coin premium and how is it calculated?"

Stocks

By 10:58 a.m. today the Tehran main index was down about 1.9% at 4,961,293, with the over-the-counter (Farabourse) index down about 1.45%. This is the sixth consecutive down session; the slide began with last week's reopening, when the index dropped more than 2% in the week's first session (Saturday, 20 Tir). In Sunday's (21 Tir) trading, retail trade value topped 11.5 trillion tomans, yet about 4.5 trillion tomans of real money left the market.

Why didn't pricier oil turn the bourse green? Normally an oil-price jump benefits the exchange's refining, petrochemical and export-oriented symbols; but in the current climate, what dominates the equity market is the systematic risk from political and military tension. In uncertainty, the retail investor prefers to hold liquid, hedging assets (dollar and gold), so money leaves stocks and moves into the parallel market. That is exactly the divergence visible in today's numbers.

Crypto

The global crypto market was also subdued today: Bitcoin eased to about $62,963 (−1.95%) and Ethereum to about $1,787 (−1.81%) (as of 11:04 a.m.). The toman-Tether rate, however, held near 179,820 tomans, broadly steady, because it tracks the domestic dollar; that is, the Iranian Tether holder is exposed more to swings in the domestic dollar than to the dollar price of cryptocurrencies. More detail is on the crypto market page.

Iron and steel

In the physical steel market, Aryan Foulad ribbed rebar (size 12, A3) was listed today near 66,000 tomans a kilo and size 10 near 67,270 tomans (ex-works). Iran's steel is caught in the short term between two forces: on one side the rising dollar and energy costs push up production costs and the price floor; on the other, weak construction activity and soft effective demand prevent prices from rising quickly. Up-to-date prices are on the iron and steel market page.

Cars

In the auto market, the main axis remains pricing-policy limbo: the dispute between the Competition Council and the Ministry of Industry, Mining and Trade over the "insufficiency" of the 15% factory-price increase is still unresolved, and the file has been referred to oversight bodies. This ambiguity keeps the factory-versus-market price gap (market margin) alive in automaker symbols and in the physical market, and prevents prices from settling.

Building materials

The building-materials market had a quiet day, with no notable move in cement or plaster prices. Still, two background pressures persist: rising energy and carrier costs that lift cement production costs, and weak construction-season demand pulling the other way. For now the net result is relative stability.

Regional and global backdrop

Today's external driver is unmistakably oil and the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude jumped about 4.2% on Monday to around $79, and West Texas Intermediate reached about $74; the trigger is the effective halt of large-vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz amid the recent escalation (per international news agencies and shipping-tracking sources). The channel to Tehran is twofold: higher oil prices benefit exporters' hard-currency revenue, but the very tension that lifted oil also intensifies domestic political risk and hedging demand for the dollar and gold. On the other side, spot gold fell for a second day to about $4,053 and the US dollar index (DXY) held near 101 and slightly positive; this combination of a relatively firm global dollar and a falling ounce explains part of the ounce's decline, though domestic gold was shielded thanks to the rising dollar.

What to watch today

Through the close of today's session, the direction of real money and whether retail trade value can exceed its recent average are the key points for the bourse. In the parallel market, watch the dollar's reaction to Strait of Hormuz developments and any official news on the shipping situation. Globally, the path of Brent crude and spot gold, and any fresh data or commentary on US Federal Reserve monetary policy, will matter. You can see scheduled market events in the Sahmino economic calendar. This report continues this morning's Market Pulse.

Note: in this report, measured fact (figures and reference times) is kept separate from analysis and outlook (cautious "why"). Nothing here is buy-or-sell advice.