Iran Market Pulse: Monday Midday, July 27, 2026; Brent Sinks 6.6% While Tehran Stocks Give Back 16,000 Points From the Opening High

It is 11am on Monday, 5 Mordad 1405 (27 July 2026), and the biggest number of the day was not printed in Tehran at all. As of 10:58 Tehran time, a barrel of Brent crude was down 6.64% at $90.75, a drop of nearly six dollars in a single day. On the same day, the Tehran Stock Exchange index sits 0.87% above yesterday's close. The mutual pause in strikes between Iran and the United States over the weekend pulled the war risk premium out of the oil price, and that one piece of news moved both the government's foreign-currency revenue and household inflation expectations at once. The second point of the day: the Tehran bourse had its best moment in the opening seconds and has been giving ground ever since.

Today's snapshot

Today's headlines

• Per Al Jazeera and CBS News, the United States paused its attacks for a second straight day on Sunday 4 Mordad (26 July) and Tehran said it had halted its retaliatory strikes too; an Iranian official said the pause holds as long as the other side stays with it.
• According to the same reports, talks by an Omani delegation in Tehran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz have been described as constructive over the past two days; the US ambassador to the United Nations called the bombing pause an effort to give diplomacy some space.
• Per CNBC and Trading Economics, Brent crude futures for September delivery fell roughly 6% today to around $90.97, and West Texas Intermediate dropped 7.69% to $83.51.
• In the global gold market, the move above $4,100 an ounce ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting came alongside a roughly 0.3% weakening in the dollar index and lower US Treasury yields. The Federal Open Market Committee meets on 6 and 7 Mordad (28 and 29 July), with the consensus expecting a hold in the 3.50% to 3.75% range.
• The deadline to deposit the 5 billion toman guarantee per ingot for the 152nd gold bullion auction of the Iran Currency and Gold Exchange Center falls today, Monday 5 Mordad; the auction itself runs tomorrow, Tuesday 6 Mordad, from 14:00 to 17:00 (per Eghtesad Online).

Oil and the regional and global picture: the number nobody is watching

Today's main driver is a futures contract, not a Tehran ticker. Brent printed $90.75 at 10:58, down $6.03 (6.64%). One reference point shows the size of the move: a Mehr News report on 2 Mordad put Brent at $97.65, less than a week ago. The risk premium that West Asian tensions and disrupted export routes had loaded onto the price has drained away over a handful of sessions. We reported earlier how that risk bubble was deflating; today brought its second wave.

The mechanism is simple. The oil market prices war as a probability of supply loss, not as realised damage. When both sides halt strikes and talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz are described as constructive, that probability falls and the price drops without a single extra barrel being produced.

The channel into Tehran runs both ways, and the two sides must be kept separate. The negative: cheaper oil means less foreign-currency revenue for a government whose budget leans on it. The positive: cheaper oil means less inflationary pressure through energy and transport, and more importantly, the same news that pushed oil down also pushes currency expectations down. Which side dominates is an expectation, not a data point; what is recorded is only today's number.

In the same hour, global gold moved against oil: spot gold stood at $4,103.88 at 10:59, up 1.26%, with global market reports quoting figures between $4,090 and $4,110 at different points today. The divergence is not accidental. Oil is reacting to de-escalation, while gold today is reacting to a weaker dollar and the coming Federal Reserve meeting. In global FX, the euro was at 1.1407 (up 0.32%) and the dollar at 163.34 against the yen (down 0.31%) as of 10:59; both confirm a softer dollar. The yuan and the lira produced no fresh news today, and our latest recorded rates for them still date to 2 Mordad.

Stocks: the best moment of the day was the first second

Today's session has a clear pattern. The main index, which closed yesterday at 5,002,330 points, printed 5,062,261 points in its first opening reading at 09:05, an opening gap of 59,931 points, or 1.20%. But that number remained the high of the day. The index stepped down from there and stood at 5,045,979 points at 11:05: 43,650 points (0.87%) above yesterday, yet 16,282 points below the opening high. Roughly a quarter of the initial jump has been handed back.

That is exactly where today differs from yesterday. In Sunday's session the index opened with a gap and built on it through the day; today it opened with a bigger gap and has had sellers from 09:05 onward. This behaviour is the familiar signature of selling into the opening high after a three-day rally, not necessarily a turn in the trend.

Trading support has stayed strong. By 11:04 the total value of trades had reached about 18.9 trillion tomans, across 443,324 trades and a volume near 44.6 billion shares; for the first two hours of a session, that pace matches or exceeds yesterday's. The equal weighted index rose 14,434 points to 1,407,936 (1.04%) and the over-the-counter index stood at 40,147, up 0.90%. The equal weighted index leading the main index means today's gain is not confined to a few large caps and has breadth. You can follow the live level on our main index page.

Currency: the official rate did not move

On the official side, the dollar remittance selling rate at the Iran Currency and Gold Exchange Center printed 151,787 tomans at 07:47 this morning, a negligible 0.14% change, with the buying rate at 150,420 tomans at 08:02. The latest recorded free-market rate still dates to 19:59 yesterday: 186,500 tomans, down 3,200 tomans. The gap between the two is about 34,700 tomans, meaning the free market trades roughly 22.9% above the policy rate.

The point today is that the entire adjustment to de-escalation news lands on the free rate while the Exchange Center rate stays effectively still; the official rate is allocated and quota-based, which is why it moves slowly. The practical consequence for households is simple: when good news arrives the gap narrows, and when the news reverses the gap widens again. Full rates are on our currency market page.

Gold and coin: the world up, Tehran down

Yesterday's divergence continues today. The latest recorded free-market price for 18 karat gold is 17,878,900 tomans per gram (19:59 on Sunday 4 Mordad, down 2.1%), and for the Emami coin 181,490,000 tomans, down 1.65%. Today's market reports (Eco Iran and Donya-e-Eqtesad) quote the Emami coin around 179,800,000 tomans and a gram of 18 karat gold around 17,960,300 tomans, meaning the coin extended its slide while gram gold held roughly flat. If that picture holds to the close, it means more of the coin premium draining away rather than gold itself getting cheaper. The Emami coin premium was last recorded at 3,575,000 tomans, about 2% of the coin price.

The live domestic board today is the traded gold market: 18 karat traded gold at the Exchange Center was at 19,763,100 tomans (selling rate) as of 10:59 and effectively unchanged, while gold funds edged higher, with the gold fund at 127,951 tomans at 11:00, up 0.37%. The distinction matters: the ounce is up 1.26% today, so what got cheaper in Tehran is not gold, it is the dollar inside gold. Details on our gold page.

Crypto

The global crypto market is green alongside gold: Bitcoin traded at $65,426 at 10:59 today, up 1.20%, and Tether Gold at $4,093.97, up 0.96%. The same driver lifting gold, a weaker dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, is working here too. The standing reminder: the global price is in dollars, and any toman price for a crypto asset carries the dollar rate inside it. So on a day when the domestic dollar retreats, toman Tether can fall even while the global price rises.

Iron and steel

The steel market shows no meaningful change. Based on factory rates recorded on 5 Mordad 1405, Arian Foulad 10mm A3 rebar stands at 70,640 tomans, 12mm rebar at 69,360 tomans and 14mm rebar at 69,270 tomans per kilogram. Today's two drivers, falling oil and a falling dollar, reach this market with a lag: steel product pricing is tied to the exchange rate and energy costs and usually responds one to two weeks later. Full rates are on our iron and steel page.

Cars

The car market remains in the same trading lull as recent days, with no fresh price news recorded for today. Buyer behaviour follows the logic of the currency market: when the dollar is expected to fall further, car buyers hold off and deals are postponed. That same expectation keeps the market margin over the factory price compressed.

Building materials

Cement rates are unchanged. The latest recording (4 Mordad 1405) put bulk Portland type 2 cement from Tehran Cement at 4,014,000 tomans and Abyek cement at 3,673,000 tomans per tonne. The decisive variable for this market in summer remains the factories' energy quota, not construction demand.

The takeaway

The verdict so far today is clear: this was oil's day, not the bourse's. The main index is 0.87% higher, but the largest move of the day was a 6.64% drop in Brent that no board in Tehran displays. If one thing should stay with you from this report, it is this: a single piece of news pushed two markets in opposite directions. The pause in strikes dragged oil down because it cut the probability of supply loss, yet global gold rose 1.26% on the same day, because its driver today was not war but a weak dollar and the Federal Reserve meeting. Any analysis that explains both with one cause has misread one of them.

What to watch this afternoon

• The closing hour: whether the main index closes above the five million point mark or the selling into the opening high runs through to 12:30.
• The direction of retail money: after a three-day rally, net retail inflow or outflow in the second half of the session is the earliest sign of continuation or a stall.
• Afternoon free-market currency rates: the free dollar's response to falling oil and the continued pause in strikes usually shows up in the closing hours of the day.
• The bullion auction guarantee deadline: today is the last day to deposit for the 152nd gold bullion auction, which runs tomorrow, Tuesday 6 Mordad, from 14:00 to 17:00. See our market calendar.
• The Federal Reserve meeting: Wednesday's decision on 7 Mordad and the tone of the statement will set the path for the gold ounce, and through it domestic gold, for the rest of the week.

This report is a review of market data and is not a buy or sell recommendation. Every figure is given with its own reference time, and rates change through the day.