Iran Market Pulse: Monday Morning, July 20, 2026; the Dollar Backs Off Its 194,000-Toman Record, but Its Gap With the Official Rate Widens to 42,000 Tomans

After several days of back-to-back records, the parallel market opens on Monday, 29 Tir 1405 (20 July 2026), with a mixed picture. The free-market dollar, which on Sunday, 28 Tir (19 July) entered the 194,000-toman channel for the first time and climbed to about 195,000 tomans intraday, eased back by that evening to around 193,000 tomans. Yet this modest pullback highlighted a more important number: the gap between the free rate and the official "toafoghi" dollar at the Exchange Center, still around 150,000 tomans, has widened to more than 42,000 tomans (nearly 28%), a spread that by itself tells today's currency-market story.

Trends in the other markets are not uniform either. 18-karat gold fell nearly 2% and the Emami coin slipped, yet the coin premium (habab) rose against the price. By early Monday, Brent crude jumped more than 3% to the 91-dollar mark, while spot gold hovered near 4,020 dollars. Meanwhile the Tehran Stock Exchange booked another down session on Sunday, and the car market rose in step with the recent currency surge.

Today at a Glance (through the evening of Sunday 28 and the early hours of Monday 29 Tir 1405 / 19-20 July 2026)

Prices refer to the latest data recorded as of publication and change through the day.

Today's Headlines

• According to economic news agencies, the official (toafoghi) dollar at the Exchange Center rose 225 tomans on Sunday 28 Tir to a sell rate of 150,462 tomans, continuing its slow climb even as its distance from the free market widened.
• According to capital-market outlets, the TEDPIX fell for another consecutive session on Sunday 28 Tir, with selling pressure and continued retail ("haghighi") money outflow still weighing on the market.
• According to news sources, Iran-Oman talks in Muscat on managing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are continuing; Oman's proposal rests on two separate corridors, and the "navigation fee" question remains a point of dispute.
• According to auto-market reports, Saipa and Iran Khodro models rose sharply on Sunday 28 Tir, in step with the currency surge of recent days.
• Early Monday, Brent crude jumped more than 3% to the 91-dollar mark, a rise rooted in worries over Strait of Hormuz tension.

Currency: the Free Rate Eased, the Gap With the Official Rate Widened

In the currency market, the free-market dollar, after Sunday's record run (entering the 194,000-toman channel and printing a daily high near 195,000 tomans), pulled back about 1,500 tomans by that evening to stand around 193,000 tomans. The free-market euro traded near 221,000 tomans.

On the official side, the sell rate of the toafoghi dollar at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center rose 225 tomans on Sunday 28 Tir to 150,462 tomans (buy 149,108 tomans); the remittance euro was quoted at 172,113 tomans and the UAE dirham at 40,970 tomans. That puts the free-versus-official dollar gap above 42,000 tomans, roughly 28%. This spread, a product of the country's multi-rate currency structure, carries a message for importers and households alike: part of demand is met through the cheaper official channel and the rest presses on the free market.

Why? Persistent geopolitical risk (Strait of Hormuz tension and the rapid collapse of successive ceasefires) has kept inflation expectations alive and lifted hedging demand for foreign currency; conversely, any sign of progress at the Muscat table can temporarily cool the free market, likely part of what drove last night's modest pullback.

Gold and Coin: Prices Fell, but the Premium Rose

In the gold and coin market, each gram of 18-karat gold fell nearly 2%, tracking the softer currency and swings in global gold, to a range around 18.8 million tomans. The Emami coin also slipped about half a percent to around 189 million tomans (it was seen near 191 million tomans intraday on Sunday).

The notable point is the behavior of the coin premium (habab): against the falling price, the Emami coin premium rose about 6.9% to around 6.5 million tomans. A rising premium alongside a falling price usually signals that precautionary, hedging demand for the coin (as a safe asset against risk) remains strong even when the base price drops with global gold. Spot gold, meanwhile, hovered near 4,020 dollars an ounce, close to the psychological 4,000-dollar line.

Stocks: Another Down Session

The Tehran Stock Exchange main index (TEDPIX) closed Sunday 28 Tir down 21,784 points (0.46%) at 4,755,500 points, extending the recent multi-session decline; the over-the-counter index (IFX) also fell 0.56%. Market reports point to continued dominance of supply over demand and further retail money outflow (on Saturday 27 Tir, retail outflow was reported around 4.8 hemat). Until retail inflows and trading value strengthen, the dominant scenario remains grinding, downward-biased volatility. Part of this weakness reflects capital rotating toward the parallel markets (currency and gold) in the current high-risk climate.

Crypto: Calm and Rangebound

In the crypto market, early Monday Bitcoin traded little changed near 64,718 dollars (up 0.33%) and Ethereum near 1,872 dollars. The domestic Tether rate remains roughly level with the free-market dollar (around 193,000 tomans); recall that global crypto prices are measured in dollars and the toman price embeds the dollar rate, so part of the toman swing in crypto simply reflects the currency's move.

Iron and Steel

In the iron and steel market, factory rebar rates held steady; for example, 10-mm Aryan Foulad rebar (A3) was quoted around 69,090 tomans and 12-mm rebar around 67,820 tomans per kilogram (factory rates, 28 Tir). The steel market watches two variables above all: the exchange rate (which sets input costs and the export price floor) and global steel. The jump in oil and the swing in the currency could feed into energy costs and price expectations in the days ahead.

Cars: Rising in Step With the Currency

In contrast to the currency's relative calm late Sunday, the car market had one of its most turbulent days on Sunday 28 Tir, rising in step with the recent currency surge. According to market reports, the Shahin automatic rose about 111 million tomans to around 2.35 billion tomans, the Quick S rose 43 million tomans to about 1.265 billion tomans, and the Dena Plus automatic rose 20 million tomans to around 2.78 billion tomans. The market margin (the gap between factory and open-market prices) remains high in the current inflationary climate and stays a direct function of the exchange rate.

Building Materials

In the building materials market, cement prices were relatively stable; Portland cement type 2 in bulk was quoted around 4.014 million tomans per ton in Tehran and around 3.673 million tomans for Abyek (28 Tir). The main drivers here are seasonal construction demand and energy costs; the currency has an indirect effect, since it raises the cost of some inputs and transport.

Regional and Global Backdrop

The main driver of global markets remains the Iran-US tension and the Strait of Hormuz file. Brent crude jumped more than 3% early Monday to the 91-dollar mark and has stood well above its early-Tir lows in recent weeks; worries over disruption to Hormuz shipping have kept the oil risk premium elevated. Spot gold hovered near 4,020 dollars, close to the 4,000-dollar line; the rise in oil and expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates high (owing to oil-driven inflation pressure) have been among the factors capping gold lately. In the neighborhood, the Turkish lira traded near 47 to the dollar, and the UAE dirham, one of Iran's main trade corridors, was quoted at 40,970 tomans at the Exchange Center. These variables reach Tehran through two channels: the global gold price, which sets the floor for domestic gold, and oil, which shapes both currency earnings and market sentiment.

What to Watch Today

• Bullion and coin auction: an auction is on the market calendar for tomorrow, Tuesday 30 Tir; its result could affect the coin and its premium.
• The Muscat table: the continuation of Iran-Oman talks and the two foreign ministries' joint working group on the two Hormuz corridors and the navigation-fee question; any positive or negative news feeds straight into oil and the currency.
• The bourse: whether retail money returns and whether the index can reclaim the 4.8-million-point channel.
• Global: the path of Brent crude on Hormuz headlines, gold's behavior around 4,000 dollars, and Federal Reserve rate signals.
• To follow upcoming events see the Sahmino economic calendar, and for analysis of the southern-tension fallout see "Southern Iran Under Fire."

This report is a news review of market conditions, not buy or sell advice. Figures are timed and sourced and change through the day.