Iran Market Pulse: Tuesday Morning, July 14, 2026; The Dollar Sets a New Record and Brent Oil Nears $85

Lead: On the morning of Tuesday, 23 Tir 1405 (July 14, 2026), the currency market is once again the headline. The live free-market dollar rate, for which the toman-Tether rate is the fast proxy, rose early today to around 183,000 tomans, a fresh record; the open-market dollar had already closed Monday up about 1,400 tomans at 180,985 tomans. The fuel for the move lies beyond the borders: the continuing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent crude to about $85, and that tension keeps hedging demand for currency and gold alive at home. The clear winners of the past day were the dollar and oil; the main loser was the Tehran Stock Exchange, which closed Monday down 1.79% at 4,966,761 points and stayed below the five-million mark. Notably, in the middle of that decline, Tehran Oil Refining (Shatran) reported a striking jump in its annual profit.

Today at a glance

The global-dollar, crypto and oil figures are from early this morning (before the bourse open); the equity figures are Monday's close, and the gold and coin figures are the last update on Monday evening. Live rates are on the currency page and the index page.

Today's headlines

• Per open-market data, the dollar rose about 1,400 tomans on Monday 22 Tir to 180,985 tomans, and the live Tether-toman rate climbed early Tuesday to around 183,000 tomans, a fresh record for the currency market.
• Per international agencies and shipping-tracking references, the disruption to large-vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz continues, lifting Brent crude to about $85 early today.
• Per capital-market outlets, the Tehran index fell about 90,000 points (1.79%) on Monday, total trade value topped 95,000 billion rials, and the equal-weight index came in near 1,320,537.
• In its FY1404 financial statements, Tehran Oil Refining (Shatran) reported net profit of 799,000 billion rials (up 287%) and earnings per share of 1,249 rials; details are in the Stocks section.
• Global spot gold retreated for a third day and slipped below $4,000, while the US dollar index (DXY) held near 101.

Currency

The currency market had one of its most pressured sessions in weeks on Monday. The open-market dollar closed up about 1,400 tomans at 180,985 tomans, and the live Tether-toman rate, the fast proxy for the open market, rose early Tuesday to around 183,037 tomans. To grasp the scale of the move: the open-market dollar was around 90,000 tomans this time last year, so today's rate is roughly double that of a year ago.

Alongside the open market, the agreed ("tavafoqi") dollar at the Iran Currency and Gold Exchange Center remains far lower, sitting in recent weeks around 148,000 tomans (transfer selling rate). The nearly 35,000-toman gap between the two is the multi-rate spread, itself a major source of pricing uncertainty; we explain how this multi-rate system works in "Iran's currency market: why are there several rates?"

Why? The main driver of the jump is the political risk from Strait of Hormuz tension and the disruption to oil exports. When the energy-export route becomes uncertain, hedging demand for liquid assets like the dollar and gold rises, and that demand pushes the open-market rate to new highs. This is outlook, and should be kept separate from the measured figures above.

Gold & Coin

The domestic gold market held roughly steady on Monday: 18k gold traded at about 17,682,000 tomans per gram (little changed) in the last Monday-evening update, and the Emami coin near 177 million tomans (slightly below the prior day). The Emami coin premium stayed around 6.2 million tomans, showing that part of coin demand is still sentiment-driven; we cover how it is calculated in "What is the coin premium and how is it calculated?"

Why didn't domestic gold fall alongside global gold? In the same days that global spot gold retreated for a third session below $4,000, domestic gold did not fall and even held slightly higher. The reason is simple: the engine of domestic gold is the dollar rate, not just the global ounce. The rising dollar offset the drop in the ounce and kept a floor under domestic gold. Live prices are on the gold market page.

Stocks

The equity market extended its multi-week decline on Monday 22 Tir. The Tehran index fell about 1.79% (nearly 90,000 points) to close at 4,966,761 and stayed below the psychological five-million mark; the equal-weight index came in near 1,320,537 and the over-the-counter (IFX) index near 38,568. Total trade value topped 95,000 billion rials and volume passed 22 billion shares, but selling pressure and retail-money outflow continue to weigh on the market.

One exception inside the sell-off: Shatran's profit surge. While the trading floor is red, Tehran Oil Refining (Shatran) painted a different picture of refining profitability. Per its FY1404 statements, revenue rose from 3,826 to 5,055,000 billion rials (up 32%) and net profit from 206 to 799,000 billion rials (up 287%), with earnings per share jumping from 350 to 1,249 rials. The positive point is that most of this profit is operating; but two warnings sit inside the numbers: first, trade receivables jumped from 271 to 1,010,000 billion rials, which raises questions about the cash quality of earnings; and second, management's own warning that future profitability depends heavily on government pricing formulas for feedstock and products. Shatran, which owns 51.32% of Shazand Petrochemical, is Iran's fifth-largest and second-most-complex refinery.

Why didn't pricier oil turn the bourse green? Normally an oil-price jump benefits refining and export-oriented symbols, and Shatran's annual profit reflects exactly that effect; but what dominates the whole market today is the systematic risk from political and military tension. In an uncertain climate, retail investors prefer to hold hedge assets (dollar and gold), so money leaves equities for the parallel market. Live index detail is on the index page.

Crypto

The global crypto market was quiet and slightly positive early today: Bitcoin traded around $62,407 (+0.33%) and Ethereum near $1,780 (+0.54%). The Tether-toman rate, tied to the domestic dollar, rose in step with the open market to around 183,000 tomans; in other words, the Iranian Tether holder is driven more by domestic-dollar swings than by the dollar price of cryptocurrencies. More data is on the crypto market page.

Iron & Steel

In the physical steel market, Aryan Foulad ribbed rebar (size 12, A3) was listed Monday at about 66,000 tomans per kilo and size 10 near 67,270 tomans (ex-works), with no notable move. Iranian steel is caught between two forces: the rising dollar and energy costs lift the price floor, while a construction slump and weaker effective demand cap fast gains. The net for now is relative stability; up-to-date figures are on the iron & steel page.

Cars

In the car market, the main theme is still pricing-policy limbo: the dispute between the Competition Council and the Ministry of Industry over whether the 15% factory-price increase is "insufficient" is unresolved, and the file has been handed to oversight bodies. That ambiguity keeps the factory-versus-market gap (market margin) alive in automaker symbols and the physical market and prevents prices from settling. The rising dollar adds further cost pressure on producers.

Building Materials

The building-materials market had a calm day with no notable move in cement or gypsum prices. Still, two background pressures persist: rising energy and carrier costs that lift cement production costs, and weak construction-season demand pulling the other way. The net of the two forces is, for now, relative stability.

Regional & global backdrop

The external driver today is unquestionably oil and the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose about 2.5% early Tuesday to around $85 and WTI moved higher in step; the driver is the continuing disruption to large-vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas trade passes. The channel to Tehran is twofold: higher oil helps exporters' hard-currency revenue (and symbols like Shatran), but the same tension that lifted oil also intensifies domestic political risk and hedging demand for the dollar and gold. On the other side, global spot gold fell for a third day below $4,000 and the US dollar index (DXY) held near 101; that mix of a relatively steady global dollar and a falling ounce explains part of the gold retreat, though domestic gold was shielded by the rising dollar. In the neighborhood, the Turkish lira held near 47 to the dollar, keeping its long-run weakening trend.

What to watch today

In the parallel market, the dollar's reaction to any fresh news on shipping and the Strait of Hormuz is the key point; whether it keeps setting records or stabilizes will clarify the near-term direction. In equities, watch the direction of retail money in the opening hours and how refining symbols react to Shatran's profit report. Globally, the path of Brent crude and gold and any fresh data or comment on US Federal Reserve policy will matter. Scheduled events are on the Sahmino economic calendar. This report follows on from Monday's Market Pulse.

Note: this report keeps "measured fact" (figures and reference times) separate from "analysis and outlook" (cautious reasoning). No part of this text is buy-or-sell advice.