Iran Market Pulse: Sunday Morning, 4 Mordad 1405 / 26 July 2026; Tether Slipped About 2,900 Toman Below the Banknote Dollar

On the morning of Sunday 4 Mordad 1405 (26 July 2026), the market is heading into the week's second trading session, and Saturday's most important number was not the one that made the headlines. Eighteen-karat gold fell 3.29% and the free-market dollar 1.8%, but Tether dropped more than either, reaching about 186,800 toman, roughly 2,900 toman below the free-market banknote dollar.

That inversion matters. Tether normally trades level with, or slightly above, the banknote rate, and on TGJU's data series this is the widest negative gap in at least three weeks: on Thursday 1 Mordad Tether stood 1,789 toman above the banknote dollar, and it is now 2,934 toman below it, a swing of nearly 4,700 toman across two sessions. Because the crypto market trades around the clock with no weekend closure, it usually turns before the banknote exchange houses do.

Today's snapshot

Today's headlines

• The interbank rate reached 23.97%. Per Khabar Online, citing Central Bank data, the weighted-average interbank interest rate rose from 23.92% to 23.97% in the week ending Wednesday 31 Tir 1405, continuing an upward trend (3 Mordad, 16:51).
• The head of the Tehran Gold and Jewellery Union attributed the fall to two factors. Bazrafshan told Tala.ir that gold and coin prices dropped sharply "because of the fall in the global ounce and in the exchange rate," and put the gram of 18-karat gold 559,000 toman below Thursday's level (3 Mordad, 12:41).
• 419,000 tons of product offered on the Iran Mercantile Exchange. Per the daily Ta'adol, the IME halls hosted offerings of roughly 419,000 tons on Saturday (3 Mordad, 13:50).
• TEDPIX posted a third consecutive positive session and closed green, though it gave back most of the day's early gain (Ta'adol, 3 Mordad).
• Pharmaceutical and food groups drew the most demand, while banking and chemical symbols saw retail money flow out (SNN, 3 Mordad).

Currency

The free-market dollar closed Saturday 3 Mordad at 189,700 toman, down 3,415 toman (1.8%) from Thursday. It was a volatile day: it opened at 191,190 toman, with a high of 191,320 and a low of 189,480. This morning, market reports still describe the rate as sitting in the 189,000 toman channel.

On the official side, the dollar remittance sell rate at the Iran Currency and Gold Exchange Center stands at 151,569 toman on Sunday morning (up 0.07%, at 07:47), against 151,467 toman on Saturday. The gap between the free and the "agreed" (tavafoqi) rate is therefore about 38,131 toman, close to 25%, a spread that has persisted for months and whose mechanism we examined earlier in our analysis of the Tether and banknote-dollar spread. The euro remittance sell rate was quoted at 172,435 toman and the UAE dirham remittance at 41,243 toman (3 Mordad), while the dirham trades at 52,157 toman in the free market. Live rates are tracked on the Sahmino currency price page.

Why: Market reports attribute Saturday's decline to expectations around de-escalation and a resumption of talks. The important caveat is that these expectations have not yet become a signed agreement, a point set out in yesterday's report on the unsigned ceasefire. This is the "why," not the "what happened": no definitive political announcement has been published.

Gold and coin

This market was Saturday's clear loser. Eighteen-karat gold fell 600,400 toman (3.29%) to 18,255,000 toman per gram, and the mesghal closed at 79,085,000 toman (the Tehran Gold and Jewellery Union quoted the Tehran mesghal at 79,120,000 toman at 12:41). Twenty-four-karat gold stands at 24,339,700 toman. This morning, the trading sell rate for 18-karat gold is 19,762,100 toman (07:59).

The Emami coin closed at 184,480,000 toman, down 4,030,000 toman (2.18%). The Bahar Azadi is at 179,900,000, the half coin at 94,000,000 and the quarter coin at 53,000,000 toman. On end-of-day data, the Emami coin premium works out at roughly 3,473,000 toman, close to 1.9% of the coin's price; the union head had quoted 5,050,000 toman at midday. The difference between the two figures is normal, since the basis and the hour of calculation differ. The full table is available on the gold price page.

Why, and why this time is different: Spot gold closed Saturday at $4,052.85, only 0.02% below Friday and in fact 0.09% above Thursday's close of $4,049.21. On a close-to-close basis, in other words, the global market barely moved. The union head, however, explains that the Tehran market's reference is the ounce at the time of Thursday's last trades, and that the ounce came in roughly $36 below that level. Even accepting that reference, the ounce's contribution (about 0.9%) plus the dollar's (1.8%) is less than domestic gold's 3.29% fall. The remaining difference has to be sought in the deflation of the precautionary premium on gold buying, the same margin that had ridden on the domestic price through the weeks of tension. That sentence is an observation, not a forecast.

Stocks

The Tehran bourse was the day's relative winner. TEDPIX rose 10,452 points (0.21%) to close at 4,894,453 points, a third consecutive positive session. But the shape of the day matters more than the closing number: the market opened at 4,919,003 points, roughly 35,000 above the prior close, then retreated to a low of 4,879,912 and surrendered nearly 25,000 points of the early gain. The Iran Fara Bourse index stands at 39,016 points.

The money-flow mix confirms the same picture: per market media, pharmaceutical and food stocks attracted buyers, while banking and chemical symbols saw retail liquidity leave. The rise in the interbank rate to 23.97% is also a backdrop that keeps the relative appeal of fixed-income instruments high against equities.

Crypto

This is where today's main story sits. Tether is trading at about 186,800 toman on Sunday morning: the Tabdeal exchange records a last trade of 186,790 toman, down 2.14% over 24 hours, with a daily range of 186,100 to 191,570 toman; Wallex quotes a bid of 186,402 and an ask of 186,500 toman, down 1.45%. TGJU's data puts Saturday's close at 186,766 toman, down 2.7%.

Why this number matters: The gap between Tether and the banknote dollar is a thermometer of expectations. When Tether trades above the banknote rate, demand for capital flight and risk hedging is high; when it trades below, the market is pricing lower risk sooner and faster than the exchange houses are. The crypto market runs around the clock with no Thursday or Friday closure, so on days when the banknote market is shut, Tether plays the price-discovery role. Globally, Bitcoin is up 0.25% at $64,540 (07:58). Live rates are updated on the crypto price page.

Iron and steel

The steel market was quiet, with no appreciable change. On the latest data for 3 Mordad, 10 mm Arian Foulad A3 rebar is 70,450 toman per kilogram ex-works, 12 mm A3 is 69,180 toman and 14 mm A3 is 69,090 toman. The sector's main news was the offering of roughly 419,000 tons of product in the IME halls on Saturday. Given that steel product pricing is tied to the exchange rate, the dollar's 1.8% fall, if sustained, could show up in the coming offerings.

Cars

The car market likewise showed no appreciable change on Saturday. On 3 Mordad data, the Peugeot 207 automatic with panoramic roof (TU5P) is priced at about 2.8 billion toman, the Peugeot 207 automatic (TU5P) at about 2.65 billion toman, and the manual Peugeot 207 with the ESP engine from the TU3 family at about 1.67 billion toman. The car market usually reacts to exchange-rate moves with a lag of several days, so Saturday's fall has not yet settled onto the board.

Materials

In building materials, a 50 kg bag of Tehran Cement portland type 2 is 218,000 toman, and the bulk rate for the same product is 4,014,000 toman per ton (3 Mordad). These figures are unchanged from our previous report; the roughly 14% three-week decline in Tehran Cement that we examined earlier is, for now, in a pause phase.

Regional and global backdrop

Brent crude stands at about $88.12 on Sunday morning (00:05), after last week's sharp fall drained the geopolitical risk premium. Spot gold has held at $4,052.85 and, in global markets, traders are pricing a probability close to 78% of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September meeting, an outlook reinforced by inflation concerns from expensive energy, which typically weighs on a non-yielding asset such as gold. The channel to Tehran is clear: a lower ounce means a cheaper floor for domestic gold.

In the neighbourhood, the dollar against the Turkish lira is recorded at 47.35, up 0.23%, and the dollar against the Chinese yuan at 6.7703, down 0.04% (both 2 Mordad). A stable yuan means Iran's import costs from its largest trading partner are close to shock-free, and the UAE dirham corridor, with a remittance rate of 41,243 toman, remains the main channel for trade settlement.

The takeaway

Today's verdict is clear: Saturday was not the day gold got cheaper, it was the day the rial got dearer. Spot gold barely moved on a close-to-close basis, yet every asset that serves as a currency shelter in Iran, from gold and coin to Tether, retreated together. Remember one thing: of all these numbers, Tether turned earlier and deeper than the rest and moved to a discount against the banknote dollar. In Iran's market, when the around-the-clock rate runs ahead of the physical market's rate, it is usually saying something first.

What to watch today

• How the free-market dollar reacts in the first hours of trading to Saturday's 189,700 toman close, and whether the gap with the Tether rate closes or persists.
• Whether TEDPIX's three-day positive run continues or stops, and in particular whether the market can hold an early gain through to the close.
• The direction of retail money flow in the banking and chemical groups, after Saturday's outflow.
• Today's IME offerings in the steel and cement groups, following Saturday's 419,000 ton offering.
• Any fresh official announcement about the path of the talks, which has so far been the main driver of parallel-market pricing.
• Follow the week ahead on the Sahmino market calendar.

This report is a market news update, not buy or sell advice. Every figure is given with its time and source, and prices change within hours.