Iran Market Pulse: Wednesday Morning, July 8, 2026

Lead

The US Treasury, on Tuesday night 16 Tir 1405 (July 7, 2026), hours after Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz (including a Qatar-linked vessel), revoked "General License X," the measure that had permitted dollar sales of Iranian crude for the first time in over four decades since 1 Tir, and replaced it with a narrower "General License X-1." Brent crude reacted by climbing from Tuesday's official settlement of $74.16 (+3%) to about $76.18 by Wednesday morning, per CNBC. In the same hours, the US military struck targets in southern Iran, and Iranian state media reported explosions on Kharg Island (the country's main oil-export terminal), Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Qeshm; Iran's military command promised a "crushing response." The free-market dollar was trading around 175,300 tomans before this news broke, and the reaction of Iran's domestic markets in the first trading session since the news, today, Wednesday 17 Tir, was not yet fully reflected in official data.

Today at a glance

Today's headlines

• The US revoked Iran's oil-sales license and Brent crude climbed above $76 (Tuesday night, 16 Tir; per CBS News and Bloomberg)
• Shepna and Shabandar rose with the Brent jump; the summer crack spread sits near $19 a barrel (Wednesday, 17 Tir; ChartIX)
• China's Iranian crude imports fell more than half in June, with over 20 million barrels stranded at sea (11 to 15 Tir; Bloomberg and CNBC)
• Iran's Competition Council said the Industry Ministry's 15% approved car-price increase fell short of the Consumer and Producer Support Organization's justified 25% figure (Wednesday, 17 Tir; the Council's 758th session)
• Bank Mellat's registered capital rose from 35.3 to 338.2 trillion tomans across four stages (the latest in Ordibehesht 1405 / April to May 2026)

Currency

The free-market dollar was trading around 175,300 tomans before the oil-license revocation news broke, and ranged between 174,980 and 175,720 tomans during Tuesday 16 Tir's session (Tejarat News, Eghtesad News). The free-market euro was around 200,850 tomans the same day (ILNA, Ta'adol). The official "agreed" dollar rate (the transfer rate at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center) was recorded at 148,163 tomans, a gap of nearly 27,000 tomans versus the free market (Ta'adol, citing Exchange Center data). The free-market currency reaction to the oil-license revocation and the oil-price jump was not yet reflected in today's official data. The broader backdrop is the Iran-US ceasefire in place since 28 Khordad (June 18) and this week's fast-moving developments in the Strait of Hormuz, which have kept traders cautious.

Gold and coin

18-karat gold per gram traded between 17,600,000 and 17,695,000 tomans on Tuesday 16 Tir (Raastin, Donya-e-Eqtesad). The Emami coin ranged between 177,500,000 and 177,990,000 tomans, and per Donya-e-Eqtesad, edged slightly lower on Tuesday versus the prior day. The Emami coin premium (the gap over its gold content's value), in the latest reading (14 Tir / July 5), stood at about 7,091,000 tomans, up 6.85% week on week; even so, that premium remains roughly 41.5% below its level three months earlier and 31% below a year ago. Global spot gold (XAU) traded between $4,150 and $4,180 an ounce on Tuesday, well off its record of $5,602 set in Bahman 1404 (late January 2026). Domestic gold and coin prices still largely track the free-market dollar; their reaction to last night's Strait of Hormuz developments had not yet shown up in today's official prices.

Stocks

Tehran's Stock Exchange, in its first session after a three-day closure, saw TEDPIX rise 2.4% (up 124,260 points) to 5,311,527 on Tuesday 16 Tir, crossing the 5.3 million mark for the first time (Tejarat News, IRNA). The equal-weight index rose 2.08% to 1,389,677, a sign of broad buying beyond just large caps. Trading value reached about 17,180 billion tomans on volume of 41.9 billion shares; real-money (retail) investors added a net 4,176 billion tomans, some of it rotated out of fixed-income funds. Today, Wednesday 17 Tir, refiners showed the first reaction to the Brent jump: Shepna (Esfahan Oil Refining) rose 2.87% on volume above 947 million shares, and Shabandar (Bandar Abbas Oil Refining) rose 0.65% to trade at 4,812 rials (ChartIX). Under the feedstock formula (95% of the average of Brent, Dubai and Oman crude), the approved summer 1405 crack spread sits near $19 a barrel, versus about $11.80 in spring, a structural factor distinct from Brent's absolute level. In company news, Bank Mellat's (Vabmellat) registered capital rose across four stages from Dey 1402 to Ordibehesht 1405, from 35.3 to 338.2 trillion tomans, mostly funded by retained earnings and asset revaluation.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded between $63,000 and $63,900 on Tuesday 16 Tir (CoinDesk), after a roughly 7 to 8% rally the prior week, its best week since Esfand (March). Ethereum traded between $1,774 and $1,785. Tether priced against the toman at about 175,200 tomans today, Wednesday 17 Tir (Vista, citing Nobitex), tracking the free-market dollar. US spot Bitcoin ETFs, after a ten-day, roughly $2.73 billion outflow streak, turned positive on 3 Tir (June 24) with a $221 million net inflow (mostly Fidelity's fund); CoinDesk linked the turn to softer US labor-market data and rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut, though the funds' year-to-date net flow remains negative.

Steel

16mm ribbed A3 rebar from Neyshabur traded at 60,092 tomans per kilogram and 12mm ribbed A3 rebar from Ghaem Razi at 59,633 tomans per kilogram on Tuesday 16 Tir (Ta'adol), a market this source described as in "wait and see" mode with prices largely unchanged. Market analysis (TGJU, AhanOnline) names rebar as the steel product most sensitive to the exchange rate, with scrap and iron ore cited as the main cost-side drivers.

Cars

In the free market, the Shahin Plus was priced around 2.6 billion tomans and the Peugeot 207 automatic with sunroof around 2.64 billion tomans on Tuesday 16 Tir; the cheapest 207 trim was near 1.59 billion tomans (Fararu). On policy, Iran's Competition Council, in its 758th session today, Wednesday 17 Tir, reviewed the Industry Ministry's approved price increase for domestic automakers. Per the Council's spokesman, the Consumer and Producer Support Organization had calculated a roughly 25% increase as justified by inflation and the exchange rate, but the ministry announced only 15%, which the Council said deviated from Directive 543 governing the passenger-car market; the deviation was referred to oversight bodies.

Materials

Bulk Type 2 Tehran cement carries a reference price around 2,480,000 tomans per ton, and the wholesale cement market was described by Tejarat News and Ta'adol as "without fresh pressure from either supply or demand." Cement deposit certificates trade on the Iran Mercantile Exchange in 10 to 100 ton lots with a 0.24% fee plus VAT.

Regional and global backdrop

Brent crude climbed from Tuesday's official settlement of $74.16 (+3%) to about $76.18 by Wednesday morning, and WTI rose from $70.44 to about $72.46 (CNBC); the Dollar Index (DXY) traded between 100.90 and 100.98 on Tuesday, below the 101 threshold, after a weaker than expected US jobs report. The S&P 500 fell 0.45% on Tuesday to 7,503.85. Regionally, China's yuan held roughly steady against the dollar between 6.79 and 6.80; China is Iran's largest crude buyer, and its refiners' Iranian oil imports fell more than half in June to about 654,000 barrels a day, with over 20 million Iranian barrels stranded at sea (Bloomberg, CNBC), a factor that directly pressures Iran's hard-currency export revenue. The UAE dirham, the main channel for Iran's informal trade, rose 8.5% on the day to 473,700 rials on Monday 15 Tir. Iraq's central bank has kept its official budget rate at 1,300 dinars per dollar, with the market rate near 1,310.5 dinars; Iraq is one of Iran's main trade-settlement channels. The Turkish lira passed 46 per dollar in June (down nearly 7% year to date), and Turkey's annual June inflation eased to 32.11%. The Russian ruble trades between 76.5 and 76.8 per dollar, down 5.2% over the past month; OPEC+ also confirmed a 188,000 barrel-a-day output increase for August (Mordad), with Russia a key partner in that agreement and a comparison point for sanctioned oil economics.

What to watch today

In the days ahead, the 26 Tir (July 17) wind-down deadline for oil transactions covered by the prior US license, the reaction of Tehran's stock market and the free-market currency to last night's Strait of Hormuz developments, several listed and OTC companies' general assemblies, and the Federal Reserve's 8 Mordad (July 29) rate decision are among the items worth following. Sahmino offers no prediction or recommendation about the future path of these developments or any asset's price.

Disclaimer

This report is for educational and market-information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All figures are dated and may change; verify them against official, up-to-date sources before making any financial decision.