P/E of 5.8 Against 17 for the Sector: After a 7.9-Fold Quarterly Profit, FSAZ's September Domestic Sales Ran 2.4 Times the Prior Five-Month Average (Tuesday, October 13, 2026)

Net profit of Ghaltak Sazan Sepahan (FSAZ) for the first quarter of fiscal 1405 rose from 909 billion rial to 7,151 billion rial, about 7.9 times. At the 13 October 2026 closing price of 14,970 rial, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.8, against roughly 17 for the basic metals sector. This report asks one question: was the jump a one-off, or does summer's sales data confirm it?

Background

FSAZ trades on the second market (main board) of the Tehran Stock Exchange. With 7 billion shares at 14,970 rial, its market value is about 104,790 billion rial. The price rose about 417% in the year to 12 October 2026, when it stood 8.3% below its one-year high. A rally that large raises the obvious question of whether earnings justify it, and the answer is in the Codal filings, not on the chart.

The main numbers

• Net profit, quarter ended 21 June 2026 (31 Khordad 1405): 7,151 billion rial (715 billion toman) against 909 billion rial a year earlier. Earnings per share went from 130 to 1,023 rial. Source: unaudited interim statements, tracing number 1571081, published 21 July 2026.
• Operating revenue, same period: 32,799 billion rial, about 94% above 16,875 billion rial a year earlier. Gross profit rose from 1,584 to 10,591 billion rial, and the gross margin from 9.4% to 32.3%.
• Price-to-earnings: 5.81, using trailing four-quarter EPS of 2,578 rial and the 13 October 2026 close of 14,970 rial; the sector figure is 16.96 in the nightly data of 12 October 2026. The Tehran Stock Exchange's own technology-management feed shows the same EPS and a sector multiple of 17.5.
• Dividend: the 20 June 2026 (30 Khordad 1405) assembly approved 630 rial per share for fiscal 1404, a 37.3% payout ratio; that is a yield of about 4.2% on the 13 October 2026 price.

Drivers

The monthly activity reports show spring was not a single-quarter event. In the September report (tracing number 1605935, published 29 September 2026) domestic sales for the month were 16,385 billion rial. The average monthly domestic sales of the previous five months were 6,693 billion rial (total 33,465 billion rial), so September domestic sales were about 2.4 times that average. Cumulative six-month sales for 1405 reached 80,247 billion rial, about 2.4 times the 33,443 billion rial of the same period a year earlier and nearly equal to all of fiscal 1404 revenue (82,248 billion rial, audited). Subtracting spring revenue from the six-month total leaves summer sales near 47,449 billion rial, about 1.4 to 1.5 times spring. That is our own calculation from one financial statement and one monthly report, and both are unaudited.

The sales mix has also changed. In spring about 19,009 billion rial of the 32,799 billion rial in revenue was exports (close to 58%), but in September exports were only 242 billion rial. September's growth therefore came from domestic sales, and total revenue that month (16,627 billion rial) was about 1.3 times the five-month monthly average, not 2.4 times. Whether profit persists depends on domestic sales holding something like spring's margin.

The cautious objections

There are three serious ones. First, both the spring statements and the monthly reports are unaudited. Second, the gross margin went from 9.4% to 32.3% in one year, and keeping it depends on selling prices and product mix. Third, Sahmino's risk-free rate series stood near 43.2% on 12 October 2026, while the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio (1 divided by 5.81) is about 17.2%. A low multiple without continued earnings growth is not enough against deposit rates. On the order book, individual investors were net sellers over the 20 sessions to 12 October 2026, by about 441 billion rial (approximate, estimated value), though net buyers over the last five sessions.

Outlook

The balance sheet does not enlarge the risk: debt to equity is 0.36, the current ratio is 1.3 and interest-bearing debt is about 8,649 billion rial. Sahmino's composite score for the stock is 70, second among 104 basic-metals names, with percentiles against the whole market of 72 for value, 75 for growth, 82 for liquidity and 57 for profitability (nightly calculation of 13 October 2026). A screen in Sahmino's screener for price-to-earnings between 0 and 8 and year-on-year profit growth above 100% within basic metals returns six names, FSAZ among them; you can see the same numbers beside the price on the FSAZ symbol page.

On 12 October 2026 the Sahmino desk's stance on FSAZ is "watch", not buy, with no target or invalidation defined for that stance. A bullish MACD signal from the 11 October 2026 session is open, though: reference price 15,000 rial, target 15,974 rial, invalidation 14,026 rial, horizon 15 sessions, with a 72% chance of reaching the target and a lower bound of 64%. Of every 100 settled signals on the desk, about 59 reached their target (3,075 of 5,171). The entry limit for this signal is about 15,244 rial and has not been passed. The reward-to-risk ratio from the 13 October 2026 close is about 1.1, not the 1.81 calculated from 14,720 rial when the signal was logged.

Verdict

The evidence says the jump in FSAZ's profit was not a one-off, because sales rose across two consecutive quarters, but final confirmation comes with the six-month 1405 financial statements. Sahmino's bullish signal on FSAZ stays open toward a target of 15,974 rial, as long as the price holds above 14,026 rial and below the entry ceiling of 15,244 rial, over a horizon of 15 sessions from 11 October 2026; a close below 14,026 rial invalidates it. This is a measurable Sahmino claim built on the evidence above.

What to follow

• The six-month financial statements to 22 September 2026 (31 Shahrivar 1405) on Codal, and how their gross margin compares with spring's 32.3%.
• The October monthly activity report: the export and domestic split.
• Whether the price closes above 14,026 rial, and how it behaves against the one-year high of 15,960 rial (the intraday high of 16 September 2026).
• The assembly and dividend: the 20 June 2026 assembly decisions in the Sahmino calendar.