AHRM's 18% Gap to NAV Survived a 17.6% Price Rally; Eight Leveraged Funds Trade 10 to 19% Below NAV (Sunday 11 October 2026)

The leveraged fund AHRM (the "Ahrom" fund, listed on the exchange-traded fund board of the Tehran Stock Exchange) was changing hands on the morning of Sunday 11 October 2026 about 18 to 20 percent below its net asset value (NAV). For every 100 rials of assets behind a unit, buyers were paying roughly 80 rials. The striking part: the same gap was there two weeks ago, and the price has risen 17.6 percent since 27 September. This report asks why the gap does not close, and what entry, target and invalidation a buyer could follow.

Background

A leveraged fund is an exchange-traded fund in which ordinary-unit capital is used to multiply the return of the preferred units over the return of the underlying assets. Amir Nadiri, manager of the Narenj Ahram fund, told Bourse24 in June 2026 that the legal cap on the leverage multiple is 2 and that his own fund runs at about 1.7. The meaning is plain: in a rising market returns are larger, in a falling market losses are larger too. NAV (the redemption price) is computed by the fund from its portfolio, while the board price is set by supply and demand; the difference is the "bubble", and when the price sits lower it is called a negative bubble. The same manager said the gap had at times exceeded 5 to 8 percent and occasionally passed 10 percent. Today it is roughly double that.

For comparison, the Dara Yekom fund closed as much as 33.3 percent below its redemption price on 6 September 2026, so large and persistent gaps are not unique to leveraged funds, although their structure differs. If exchange-traded fund mechanics are new to you, the lesson on investment funds and ETFs is a good starting point.

The numbers

• Sahmino screen, 11 October 2026, 10:21 Tehran time: AHRM price 78,890 rials against a nightly NAV of 95,951 rials (reading of 9 October); the gap is 17.8 percent.
• TSETMC, same day, 10:21: redemption price 98,543 rials and subscription price 99,939 rials; against a last price of 78,335 rials the gap to the redemption price is 20.5 percent.
• Sahmino's nightly reading against the closing price so far at 10:21 that session, 78,334 rials on 11 October (the session closed at 76,606 rials): gap 18.4 percent. The three readings differ because NAV and price are stamped at different times; together they form one range, 18 to 20 percent.
• 27 September 2026 (report by Sedaye Bourse): AHRM at 67,404 rials carried a negative bubble of 19.6 percent.
• AHRM closing price: 66,178 rials on 27 September and 77,817 rials on 10 October, up 17.6 percent; 77,817 is its highest close in 52 weeks. Turnover to 10:21 on 11 October was 12.2 thousand billion rials, the highest among the funds in the screen (AHRM on Sahmino).
• 20-session average price 71,599 rials and 50-session average 60,675 rials (Sahmino calculation, 11 October).
• Daily price band on 11 October: 74,705 to 80,929 rials around the 77,817 close, that is 4 percent either way.

AHRM is not alone. In the Sahmino screen (11 October, 10:21, live price against nightly NAV) the eight leveraged funds stood as follows:

Across the whole fund group the same screen found 26 symbols more than 3 percent below NAV; the eight leveraged funds are part of that set, not all of it.

Drivers

The three reasons the Narenj Ahram manager gives for the gap's persistence can be tested against the day's data. First, the price band: the AHRM price cannot move more than 4 percent in a day, so when NAV runs faster the price cannot keep up and queues form. This morning the buy queue in Jahesh sat at the ceiling of 50,193 rials with 33.6 million units of demand and no supply (10:20), while its live NAV is 62,048 rials. Second, he says unit issuance has been halted in all leveraged funds by the Securities and Exchange Organization for about a year, so new money can enter only through the board. Third, these funds have no market maker in the usual sense, so the price is purely the outcome of holders' supply and demand. These are one fund manager's statements, and he is on record asking for a wider band; what we have confirmed is the measurable part: the 4 percent band and the ceiling queue.

The fourth driver is a regulatory decision, with a caveat. According to the same manager, speaking to Sedaye Bourse on 8 September 2026, the Securities and Exchange Organization sent an official letter obliging leveraged funds to reduce the negative bubble, and the funds were expected to collect units from the board and cancel them. We have not seen the letter and have not confirmed its execution from an independent source. What we do see is that five weeks later the gaps are still between 10 and 19 percent. Collecting units from the board, if carried out, is exactly what would cut supply and shorten the gap; its trace is not yet in the numbers.

The market backdrop matters too: the Tehran Stock Exchange main index rose from 7,788,342 on 3 October to 8,265,481 on 10 October, up 6.1 percent. The NAV of a fund whose portfolio is large-cap shares rises with that wave, and faster given the leverage.

Outlook

Three paths are clear. If the band is widened or units are collected from the board, the gap could return to the 10 percent the manager described as occasional; with a live NAV of 98,543 rials, a price 10 percent below it is about 88,700 rials. If nothing changes, the buyer simply earns NAV's return and the gap stays at 15 to 20 percent. If the market turns, NAV falls with the leverage multiple: AHRM dropped from a peak of 75,064 rials on 16 September to 64,812 rials on 26 September, a 13.7 percent fall in six sessions.

A sensible entry starts where the gap is at least 15 percent (against live NAV, a price up to about 83,800 rials) and the unit is not sitting in a ceiling buy queue. The target is the gap returning to 10 percent. The invalidation is a daily close below the 20-session average, 71,600 rials, about 9 percent under the 11 October price. Sahmino's desk holds no recorded stance on AHRM as of the 10 October session; the reading below is this report's own reading of the data above, not a desk call.

Takeaway

The gap between AHRM and its NAV is a visible but locked anomaly: the reasons the fund manager gives fit the day's data, yet no independent mechanism that would close the gap shows up in the numbers yet. Our reading: AHRM stays above its 20-session average of 71,600 rials until the end of Aban. Condition: as long as live NAV does not fall below 95,951 rials. Horizon: until the end of Aban 1405 (21 November 2026). Invalidation: a daily close below 71,600 rials. Reading taken on 11 October 2026 at 10:26.

What to watch

• The gap between price and live NAV on TSETMC and in the Sahmino screener: choose the "fund" group, set the NAV gap condition to "below minus 3 percent" and sort by turnover; on 11 October 26 funds passed this filter.
• An official announcement of unit collection or cancellation, or a change to the leveraged funds' price band; confirm both from Codal or the Securities and Exchange Organization, not from a manager's word.
• Queues at the 4 percent ceiling and floor: a ceiling buy queue means you cannot enter at that price, a floor sell queue means NAV is falling faster than the price.
• Read the one-year return of leveraged funds together with their leverage multiple and gap, never separately.