Tehran Cement Jumped 33.5% in Two Weeks, Passing Its Early-Summer Level; the Bag-to-Bulk Premium Nearly Doubled at Most Makers (Friday, August 7, 2026)

Two weeks after Sahmino's last report on falling Tehran cement prices, the picture has fully reversed: the 50 kilogram bag of Tehran cement, which had fallen to 218,000 tomans on July 24, 2026 (2 Mordad 1405), stood at 291,000 tomans today, Friday, August 7, 2026 (16 Mordad 1405), a jump of close to 33.5% in fourteen days. That figure is also about 15% above the 253,000 toman level of June 30 (9 Tir), the starting point of the drop described in the earlier report.

In other words, the decline that three weeks ago was described as "Tehran breaking away from the pack" has not only been reversed, it has been overshot. This report is a direct follow-up to Sahmino's earlier piece and picks up the same question from a new angle: why did Tehran break away from the pack again, this time in the opposite direction? This analysis is not a buy or sell recommendation.

Background

Sahmino's July 24 report ("Tehran Cement Fell About 14% in Three Weeks") showed the Tehran bag had dropped from about 253,000 tomans on June 30 to 218,000 tomans on July 24, while Saveh and Abyek held roughly steady. That report tentatively linked the drop to the industrial power rationing and gas cuts to the cement sector that ran from late April through August (full details in the July 2 report), while stating plainly that causality was unproven.

That report's "what to watch" section listed exactly one question: whether Tehran's price would converge back toward, or diverge further from, Saveh and Abyek in the coming weeks. Today's data answers that question, and the answer is divergence in the other direction.

Today's number: from drop to surge

The table below compares the 50 kilogram bag price of three makers on two dates, both from Sahmino's own price feed.

Tehran, the cheapest bag on this list two weeks ago, is now pricier than Abyek and effectively leads the table. For reference, today's bag price is 253,000 tomans for Shahrud cement and 263,000 tomans for Firouzkuh cement; because their bag prices were not recorded on the same basis in the July 24 report, we do not present a two-week comparison for them here, to avoid publishing an unreliable figure.

Second finding: the bag-to-bulk premium widened almost everywhere

The earlier report flagged an odd pattern: the premium of bagged cement over bulk (the cost of "bagging" an essentially homogeneous good) ranged from 8.6% at Tehran to 41.3% at Shahrud on July 24. With today's prices, that premium has roughly doubled at most makers:

The calculation uses Sahmino's own price feed on August 7, 2026: the bag price times 20 (to match the per-ton bulk scale), minus the bulk price, divided by the bulk price. Firouzkuh cement is left out of this table because, as flagged in the earlier report, our feed's bulk reference ("Firouzkuh cement") and bag reference ("Faraz Firouzkuh cement") may not be the same company, making the premium calculation unreliable for that row.

Three of four makers now carry a wider premium than two weeks ago; only Shahrud eased slightly. That means across most of the market, bagged cement, which mostly reaches small buyers and retail builders, has gotten pricier faster than bulk cement, which mostly goes to ready mix plants and large projects.

Drivers

This report does not establish definitive causality; what follows are hypotheses, not conclusions.

Reconstruction and retail demand. Recent Sahmino reports, including on Mobarakeh Steel's AGM, have shown parts of industry under pressure to repair war damage. If reconstruction and small-scale repair demand runs more through the retail bag channel than through large bulk projects, the bag premium should widen exactly as observed. This is a testable hypothesis, not an established fact in this report.

General inflation. Iran's year-on-year inflation rate, per the latest Central Bank data, is above 80%; part of the nominal rise in bag prices could simply track broad inflation, though two weeks is a short window for that effect alone.

The lifting of the power constraint. Sahmino's earlier report noted that industrial power would not be cut for Mordad and Shahrivar (roughly August and September). That decision should ease supply, not tighten it, so it does not by itself explain the bag price surge, and that contradiction is itself notable.

Outlook

If the bag price rise continues while bulk lags, the direct effect will fall harder on housing construction and small projects than on large ones, since small buyers mostly buy by the bag. If instead this is a short-lived supply blip, later reports should show renewed convergence, as the earlier report's own cautious forecast suggested.

Risks and uncertainties

• Price-basis uncertainty: as with the earlier report, the possibility that the two feed readings on two dates are not on a fully identical basis cannot be ruled out.
• Generalization risk: this report covers only three to four makers, not the whole national cement industry.
• Unproven causality: none of the drivers above are confirmed with independent data in this report.

Bottom line

Two weeks after a 14% drop, Tehran's cement bag surged 33.5%, not only reversing that drop but landing about 15% above its June 30 level, while Saveh and Abyek moved far more slowly. At the same time, the bag-to-bulk premium roughly doubled at three of the main makers, a sign that retail cement got pricier faster than wholesale. The precise cause of this divergence is not yet clear. This analysis is not a buy or sell recommendation.

What to watch

• Whether Tehran's bag price keeps rising in coming weeks, and whether the gap with Saveh closes again.
• The weekly volume and value of cement offered on the Iran Mercantile Exchange's physical floor.
• The bag-to-bulk premium trend at other makers.
• Daily prices on Sahmino's materials price page and events on the Sahmino calendar.