What Is Shapna's Forward P/E? Estimating It From Isfahan Oil Refining's 1,152 Rial EPS (Tuesday, July 7, 2026)

Shapna (Isfahan Oil Refining Company, TSE ticker شپنا), last traded at a confirmed 8,160 rials per share on Monday, May 15, 2026. Against trailing twelve month earnings per share of 1,152 rials from its latest CODAL disclosure, that puts the trailing P/E at 7.08x. As Tehran's stock exchange reopened today after a multi day closure, this report estimates Shapna's forward P/E under three scenarios; it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the stock.

Background

Isfahan Oil Refining Company has operated since 1979 and, with a nameplate capacity of 375,000 barrels per day across three 125,000 barrel/day distillation units, produces close to 22% of Iran's refined petroleum products, mainly gasoline, gasoil, fuel oil, LPG and kerosene, plus feedstocks such as naphtha and platformate for downstream industry. The company's registered capital was previously raised from 526.82 to 627.23 trillion rials, equivalent to roughly 627.2 billion shares. Per its interim financial statements on CODAL, Shapna's EPS for the first quarter of fiscal year 1404 (ending June 21, 2025) came to 271 rials, with quarterly gross profit up about 258% year on year to roughly 18,115 billion tomans, one of the company's strongest quarters in recent years.

Key numbers

Drivers

Listed Iranian refiners' profitability hinges on two variables: the crude feedstock price billed by the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (linked, via formula, to export crude pricing), and product revenue, a mix of regulated domestic prices and export or commodity exchange pricing for surplus output. Moves in Brent or the free market rate reach refiner earnings through these formulas, with a lag, rather than instantly. Brent settled near $72 a barrel on July 6, 2026, after weeks of retreat driven largely by OPEC+ raising its August output quota by 188,000 barrels a day and accelerating Persian Gulf exports, including from Saudi Arabia. The free market dollar held at 175,600 tomans the same day. Together, these two inputs set the crack spread range, and with it, the refiner's coming quarterly earnings.

Outlook

At the 8,160 rial share price, three illustrative forward P/E scenarios follow: a conservative case (trailing EPS repeats with no growth) keeps the forward multiple near 7.1x; a middle case (EPS grows 15 to 20% to about 1,350 rials, assuming the crack spread and exchange rate hold near current levels) brings it down to roughly 6x; and an optimistic case (a smaller repeat of spring 1404's profit surge, lifting trailing EPS above 2,000 rials) would put the forward multiple below 4x, close to the 3.9x a fundamental analysis site calculated for Shapna a year earlier, on April 14, 2025. To return to that same 3.9x multiple at today's price exactly, trailing EPS would need to reach about 2,090 rials, nearly double the current 1,152 rials figure. These three scenarios are calculations built on stated assumptions, not a company earnings forecast, and none of them is a trading recommendation.

What to watch

Shapna's next monthly CODAL activity report is the first signal of whether actual earnings track any of these three scenarios. The audited fiscal 1404 financial statements and the annual shareholders' meeting, typically held a few months after the fiscal year end in March, are the second. Alongside those, OPEC+'s coming quota decisions and whether the free market dollar holds steady after today's exchange reopening will feed directly into the crack spread, and therefore into these estimates.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Investing in capital markets carries risk, and the investor bears responsibility for their own decisions.