August US Inflation Report Pushes Odds of a Fed Rate Hike Above 85 Percent

According to EcoIran, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, September 11, 2026 (20 Shahrivar 1405), showed the US consumer price index rose 0.4 percent month on month in August, with annual inflation holding steady at 3.4 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3 percent on the month, its largest monthly increase since April, even as the annual core rate eased from 2.5 to 2.4 percent.

Markets reacted quickly: futures traders had priced roughly a 72 percent probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15 to 16 meeting before the data, rising to a range of 85 to 87 percent afterward. The Fed has held rates steady in a 3.5 to 3.75 percent range for five consecutive meetings this year, though three Federal Open Market Committee members dissented in July, calling for a hike. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said in a Jackson Hole speech that the central bank's main focus must be controlling inflation, while US President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for lower rates.

These developments matter for Iran's market: the path of US interest rates and dollar strength influences global gold prices, capital flows into the region's oil economies and, ultimately, the free market exchange rate at home.