Odds of a Federal Reserve Rate Hike at the September 16 Meeting Climb Above 60 Percent

According to The Motley Fool, the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which is based on Fed funds futures pricing, put the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026 (25 Shahrivar 1405) FOMC meeting at 60.6 percent as of the morning of September 8, up from just 44.4 percent on August 7. The probability of a rate hike by year end, at the September 16, October 28 or December 9 meetings, has also risen from about 77 percent on August 7 to above 85 percent.

The shift followed the September 4 US jobs report, which showed 162,000 jobs added in August with unemployment holding at 4.1 percent; US inflation had reached a three year high of 4.2 percent in May. The sharper jump in rate hike odds came after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's August 28 speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he said for the first time that inflation must return to the Fed's long run 2 percent target "at sufficient speed."