Fed September Rate Hike Odds Ease as US Core Inflation Cools to 2.5% in July

According to a Bloomberg report carried by Ecoiran on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 (21 Mordad 1405), the US consumer price index excluding food and energy (core inflation) rose 0.2% month on month and 2.5% year on year in July. The headline consumer price index rose 0.1% month on month and 3.4% year on year in the same month, a figure also confirmed by Trading Economics citing the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Following the report, US stocks rose at the open and Treasury yields fell, as traders priced in a lower probability of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September 15 to 16 meeting. Bloomberg said the energy price shock from the Iran war is also easing, with energy prices falling for a second straight month, though prices for computer software and equipment are still rising fast. Ahead of the September meeting, the Fed will also weigh fresh inflation and labor market data, along with remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium.