Bank of Russia cuts its key rate for a tenth straight time, to 14%

The Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 25 basis points on Friday, 24 July 2026 (2 Mordad 1405), lowering it from 14.25 percent to 14 percent. It was the tenth consecutive rate cut in Russia. The central bank attributed the decision to a moderate pace of economic growth since the start of the year, rising inflation expectations among households, businesses and financial markets, and a slowdown in lending.

Alongside the cut, the Bank of Russia lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to a range of zero to 1 percent, from 0.5 to 1.5 percent previously. It raised its 2026 inflation forecast to a range of 6 to 7 percent, from 4.5 to 5.5 percent, citing the considerable rise in fuel prices as the reason for the revision. Its estimates of underlying inflation remain in the range of 4 to 5 percent on an annualised basis.

Friday's decision ran against market expectations: most analysts in a Reuters poll that week had forecast that the Bank of Russia would hold the rate steady because of higher fuel costs. Russia is one of Iran's trading partners, and the path of the rouble and Moscow's monetary policy affect trade between the two countries. The main driver of Moscow's inflation revision, the jump in fuel prices, is the same energy shock that has weighed on global markets in recent weeks.