Bank of Russia cuts key rate to 14%; lifts 2026 inflation forecast to 6 to 7 percent

On Friday, 24 July 2026, the Bank of Russia board cut its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, from 14.25 percent to 14 percent. It was the tenth consecutive cut and came against expectations; a Reuters poll before the meeting had leaned toward the rate being left on hold.

The central bank simultaneously raised its 2026 inflation forecast from a range of 4.5 to 5.5 percent to 6 to 7 percent, citing a considerable rise in fuel prices and a temporary decline in production capacity in some sectors. Annual inflation stood at 5.9 percent as of 20 July. The bank also lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to between zero and 1 percent, from 0.5 to 1.5 percent previously. Under its baseline scenario, the key rate is expected to average about 14.5 to 14.6 percent in 2026, and the next meeting is set for 11 September.

Russia is one of Iran's important trade and energy partners, so the path of its interest rate and the value of the ruble matter for bilateral transactions. Continued rate cuts amid inflationary pressure sketch a picture of the simultaneous growth and inflation squeeze in the Russian economy.