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Lesson 22

Drivers of the Dollar

An exchange rate links two currencies, with a specific settlement method and market segment. Inflation, expected policy, trade flows and access to payments can influence it, but no single variable explains every move.
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Sahmino editorial· 26 July· 2 min read· Currency

An exchange rate links two currencies, with a specific settlement method and market segment. Inflation, expected policy, trade flows and access to payments can influence it, but no single variable explains every move. A news event matters partly through the difference between the announcement and prior expectations. Distinguish cash from transfer quotations and buying from selling rates. In Iran, rates in different segments can have different eligibility and liquidity. A global dollar index is not the rial-dollar quotation.

Worked example (hypothetical)

A dollar selling quote rises from 600,000 to 660,000 rial: +10%. The reciprocal rial value in dollars falls by 1 − 600/660, about 9.1%. State the quotation direction before reporting a percentage.

Check your understanding

Why can Tehran FX move while DXY is flat? Local supply, demand, settlement access and expectations can change independently of that foreign-currency basket.

Currency MarketSahmino AcademyDrivers of the Dollar Rate

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