Barclays says a prolonged Hormuz impasse could add up to $10 to its $96 Brent forecast

Barclays said in a note on Friday 24 July 2026 that risks to its oil price forecasts are skewed higher, with the size of the risk depending on how long the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz lasts. The bank kept its Brent forecast at $96 a barrel for 2026 and $85 a barrel for 2027.

Under the bank's scenarios, if the current situation lasts another one, two or three months, that would imply upside of $2, $7 and $10 a barrel respectively to the $96 a barrel 2026 Brent forecast. Barclays added that the spot price will likely lead the move and could test $150 a barrel in the three month scenario.

Oil prices reached $100 a barrel in the week to 24 July for the first time since May, then eased to just below that level on Friday. Before the conflict began, the Strait of Hormuz was the main transit route for around a fifth of global energy supplies.