Goldman Sachs: Brent could top $120 if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist

Investment bank Goldman Sachs warned in a note dated July 20 that if disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz persist, Brent crude could rise above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. That figure, however, is not the bank's base case.

According to Business Today, Goldman analysts led by Daan Struyven estimate that Persian Gulf oil flows have fallen to below 45% of pre-war levels. The bank's base case still sees Brent around $80 in Q4 2026 and about $75 in 2027, assuming tensions ease, but it says the risks are tilted to the upside.

Brent reached a roughly six-week high near $95 a barrel on Wednesday, July 22, after four days of gains. Oil prices affect Iran's economy directly through export revenue and the gold and currency markets.