Dollar index near a one-month low as the odds of a July Fed rate hike collapse to 11%

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, was little changed at around 100.47 on Thursday, July 16, 2026, hovering near its lowest level since June 18. The index has fallen about 0.8% over the past two sessions and is on track for a weekly decline.

Soft U.S. inflation data, including an unexpected drop in the June producer price index (its biggest fall in 14 months), pushed the implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting down to about 11%, from 45% at the start of the week. Even so, inflation fears driven by surging energy prices and U.S.-Iran tensions kept the dollar from falling further. The dollar's weakness and the Fed's rate path matter directly for the global gold market and for currency expectations in Iran.